Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States

该项目支持一组研究人员在十年气候预测方面的主要研究方向，题为“调查美国西部的十年气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）”。“IDCPI是一项跨学科的努力，使用气候和古气候数据的仪器记录来评估地球系统模型（EaSM）预测十年气候变率的技能水平。一般来说，研究小组将把重点放在美国西部地区，因为历史和史前记录都记录了经常性的十年尺度水文气候变化，包括反复干旱，这归因于海面温度（SST）异常。具体而言，该小组将使用模型，结合同位素“指纹”方法，以：1）评估地球系统模型的能力（2）回顾性研究模式是否能提前预测干旱并估计干旱事件将持续多久; 3）评估美国西部未来的干旱是否可以用现有的模型预测;和4）的方法在美国西部发展未来的水文预测，并对不确定性进行评估，因为那里的模型显示出了技术水平。该项目有可能提高美国西南部地区气候预测的可靠性States. 在这样做时，研究将对资源管理者和决策者具有重要意义。 该项目还提供了一个独特的队列方法来培训和指导与合作机构有关的博士后学者。

This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.