Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States

该项目支持一组研究人员进行年代际气候预测的主要研究，题为“调查美国西部年代际气候可预测性和气候影响（IDCPI）”。IDCPI是一个跨学科的努力，利用气候和古气候数据的仪器记录来评估地球系统模式（EaSM）预测年代际气候变率的技能水平。一般来说，研究小组将把重点放在美国西部地区，因为历史和史前记录都记录了周期性的十年尺度的水文气候变化，包括反复的干旱，这被归因于海面温度（SST）异常。具体而言，该团队将使用模型，结合同位素“指纹”方法，以：1)评估地球系统模型（全球和区域模式）准确模拟大气对海温强迫的响应的能力；2)回顾性研究模型是否能够提前预测干旱并估计事件将持续多长时间；3)评估目前是否能用现有模型预测美国西部未来的干旱；4)发展未来水文预测与不确定性估计在美国西部，模型显示技能。这个项目有可能提高美国西南部区域气候预测的可靠性。这样，这项研究对资源管理人员和决策者将是重要的。该项目还提供了一种独特的队列方法来培训和指导与合作机构有关的博士后学者。

This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.