Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States

该项目支持一组研究人员进行十年气候预测的主要研究，题为“调查十年气候可预测性和气候对美国西部的影响(IDCPI)”。IDCPI是一项跨学科的努力，目的是使用气候和古气候数据的仪器记录来评估地球系统模型(EaSM)预测十年气候变异性的技能水平。一般来说，研究小组将把重点放在美国西部地区，因为历史和史前记录都记录了反复出现的十年尺度的水气候变化，包括反复干旱，这被归因于海表面温度(SST)异常。具体地说，该团队将使用模型与同位素“指纹”方法相结合，以：1)评估地球系统模型(全球和区域模型)准确模拟大气对SST强迫的响应的能力；2)回顾调查模型是否可以提前预测干旱并估计事件将持续多长时间；3)评估美国西部未来的干旱是否可以用现有的模型预测；以及4)在模型表现出技能的美国西部，开发具有不确定性估计的未来水文预测。该项目有可能提高美国西南部地区气候预测的可靠性。在这样做的过程中，这项研究将对资源经理和政策制定者具有重要意义。该项目还为培训和指导与合作机构有关的博士后学者提供了一种独特的队列方法。

This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.