LTREB: Ecosystem response to climate change: role of ecological subsidies and species interactions

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Climate change is accelerating. In the ocean, changes in temperature, storm intensity, and ocean acidification have already been documented. Impacts on marine ecosystems have been difficult to predict because modeling efforts have ignored the complexities of species interactions in the context of a changing environment. This project combines modeling and field studies of species interactions in rocky shore ecosystems along the Oregon coast under a changing climate. Key elements of this system have already changed, including abundance and recruitment of sessile invertebrates. Using insights obtained over 20+years, the investigators will evaluate how these ecosystems respond to changing climate over the next 10 years. Data on key biological and physical patterns and dynamics will inform tests of community responses using field experiments. Results will inform modeling efforts for prediction of future change and foster testing of model predictions.Pressure on coastal ecosystems is growing and will continue to do so as human populations increase. This project will contribute to society by generating one of the first comprehensive studies of how an entire ecosystem responds to climate change, and by building scientific capacity. Results will be made available on websites, and presented to the public in local to national settings through coordination with programs such as Oregon State University's Sea Grant, OSU's Hatfield Marine Science Center, and Coast Watch. Undergraduate students will be integrally involved in the research by carrying out annual community surveys under the PI's training and direction. Successful efforts in engaging women and minorities in our research group will continue and expand.