CAREER: Understanding Changing Seasonality, Variability and Extremes in the Northeast U.S. Climate

职业：了解美国东北部气候变化的季节性、变异性和极端情况

• 批准号: 1056216
• 负责人: Anji Seth
• 金额: $ 57.47万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-01 至 2018-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1056216&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Changing; Seasonality; Variability

This project will establish an integrated research, education and outreach program to understand changing climate in the Northeast (NE) United States. The research will emphasize high resolution global multi-model ensembles being prepared for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Analysis will include verification of models using both global and regional observations (temperature, precipitation, winds and moisture) and evaluation of projections for variables and timescales of importance to the region. Uncertainties will be examined using multi-model statistics. The objectives of this research are to evaluate and understand the drivers of 21st century probabilistic changes in: (a) the phase and amplitude of the mean annual cycle of climate variables, (b) the relationship between NE cold season precipitation and temperature variability associated with both tropical and mid-latitude sources, (c) the variability of warm season moisture transport into the Northeast and the relationship of soil moisture to temperature and precipitation variability, and (d) indices of extremes, the frequency and intensity of cold season cyclones, the intensity and duration of extreme heat, and their modulation by decadal variations. The education and outreach will focus on (a) training a postdoctoral researcher, a graduate student and undergraduates in the climate science specialty of geography, (b) developing a new upper division honors course on climate change science which includes an outreach/service learning component, (c) adding new project-related content to a large-enrollment, introductory course on climate, (d) developing geographic information system (GIS) based web portal for visualizing probabilistic climate change projections for Connecticut/NE, (e) sharing research results and findings with the Connecticut Governor?s Steering Committee (GSC) and Adaptation Subcommittee on Climate Change, and with other NE state and regional impacts and adaptation policy efforts. Broader impacts of this project are primarily educational and in the potential to advance understanding of current and especially future climate means, variability and extremes and of mechanisms leading to greater confidence in projections in the northeastern US, which has important societal benefits.

该项目将建立一个综合的研究，教育和推广计划，以了解美国东北部（NE）的气候变化。这项研究将强调为耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）准备的高分辨率全球多模式集合。分析将包括利用全球和区域观测（温度、降水、风和湿度）验证模型，并评价对该区域具有重要意义的变量和时间尺度的预测。将使用多模型统计来检查不确定性。本研究的目的是评估和了解21世纪世纪概率变化的驱动因素：（a）气候变量的平均年周期的相位和振幅，（B）东北冷季降水与热带和中纬度源相关的温度变率之间的关系，（c）暖季水汽输送到东北部的变化以及土壤湿度与温度和降水变化的关系，以及（d）极端指数，冷季气旋的频率和强度、极端高温的强度和持续时间及其受年代际变化的调制。教育和推广将侧重于（a）培训一名博士后研究员、一名地理气候科学专业的研究生和本科生，（B）开发一门新的气候变化科学高级荣誉课程，其中包括一个推广/服务学习部分，（c）在一门大规模招生的气候入门课程中增加新的项目相关内容，（d）发展以地理信息系统为基础的门户网站，以显示康乃狄克州/东北部的气候变化概率预测;（e）与康乃狄克州州长分享研究成果和调查结果？气候变化指导委员会（GSC）和适应小组委员会，并与其他东北州和地区的影响和适应政策的努力。该项目的更广泛影响主要是教育性的，并有可能促进对当前特别是未来气候手段、变异性和极端情况的理解，以及对美国东北部预测的机制的理解，从而提高对预测的信心，这具有重要的社会效益。