CAREER: Understanding Changing Seasonality, Variability and Extremes in the Northeast U.S. Climate

该项目将建立一个综合研究、教育和推广计划，以了解美国东北部的气候变化。该研究将着重于为耦合模式比对项目（CMIP5）准备的高分辨率全球多模式集成。分析将包括核实使用全球和区域观测（温度、降水、风和湿度）的模式，并评估对该区域重要的变量和时间尺度的预测。将使用多模型统计来检查不确定性。本研究的目的是评估和理解21世纪概率变化的驱动因素：(a)气候变量年平均周期的相位和幅度，(b)东北偏冷季降水与热带和中纬度源相关的温度变率之间的关系，(c)暖季向东北输送的水分变率以及土壤水分与温度和降水变率的关系，以及(d)极端指数，冷季气旋的频率和强度，极端高温的强度和持续时间，以及它们随年代际变化的变化。教育和推广将侧重于(a)培养一名博士后研究员、一名研究生和一名地理气候科学专业的本科生，(b)开发一门新的气候变化科学高级荣誉课程，其中包括推广/服务学习部分，(c)在一门招生人数众多的气候入门课程中增加新的与项目相关的内容。(d)开发基于地理信息系统（GIS）的门户网站，将康涅狄格州/东北部的概率气候变化预测可视化；(e)与康涅狄格州州长分享研究成果和发现？美国气候变化指导委员会（GSC）和气候变化适应小组委员会，以及其他东北各州和地区的影响和适应政策努力。该项目的更广泛影响主要是教育方面的，并有可能促进对当前和特别是未来气候手段、变率和极端事件以及机制的理解，从而提高对美国东北部预测的信心，这具有重要的社会效益。

This project will establish an integrated research, education and outreach program to understand changing climate in the Northeast (NE) United States. The research will emphasize high resolution global multi-model ensembles being prepared for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Analysis will include verification of models using both global and regional observations (temperature, precipitation, winds and moisture) and evaluation of projections for variables and timescales of importance to the region. Uncertainties will be examined using multi-model statistics. The objectives of this research are to evaluate and understand the drivers of 21st century probabilistic changes in: (a) the phase and amplitude of the mean annual cycle of climate variables, (b) the relationship between NE cold season precipitation and temperature variability associated with both tropical and mid-latitude sources, (c) the variability of warm season moisture transport into the Northeast and the relationship of soil moisture to temperature and precipitation variability, and (d) indices of extremes, the frequency and intensity of cold season cyclones, the intensity and duration of extreme heat, and their modulation by decadal variations. The education and outreach will focus on (a) training a postdoctoral researcher, a graduate student and undergraduates in the climate science specialty of geography, (b) developing a new upper division honors course on climate change science which includes an outreach/service learning component, (c) adding new project-related content to a large-enrollment, introductory course on climate, (d) developing geographic information system (GIS) based web portal for visualizing probabilistic climate change projections for Connecticut/NE, (e) sharing research results and findings with the Connecticut Governor?s Steering Committee (GSC) and Adaptation Subcommittee on Climate Change, and with other NE state and regional impacts and adaptation policy efforts. Broader impacts of this project are primarily educational and in the potential to advance understanding of current and especially future climate means, variability and extremes and of mechanisms leading to greater confidence in projections in the northeastern US, which has important societal benefits.