CAREER: Drought Predictability and the Role of Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Great Plains

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Soil moisture is an important variable in the climate system. Relatively little work has been done to assemble and homogenize in situ measurements of soil moisture and to utilize these measurements for investigating land-atmosphere interactions. The research goal of this project is to understand how soil moisture influences climate on seasonal to interannual timescales in the U.S. Great Plains. This work will address four scientific questions: (1) How do land-atmosphere interactions, specifically those related to soil moisture, vary over space and time? (2) Are soil moisture and land-atmosphere interactions accurately simulated in global land surface models? (3) What are the processes through which soil moisture influences climate on seasonal to interannual time scales? (4) Why are there substantial spatial and temporal variations in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling?This study will develop a soil moisture database for the U.S. Great Plains using station-based observations. These data are important for developing climate forecasting tools, calibrating land surface models, and validating satellite-derived soil moisture algorithms. The Community Land Model (CLM) will be used to investigate land-atmosphere interactions, interannual to interdecadal variability and to identify the physical mechanisms that are responsible for spatial and temporal variations in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling. The scientific outcomes of this project will support the development of more accurate climate forecasts and is readily transferable to other mid-latitude regions. Broader impacts of this project include (1) disseminating the obtained results to stakeholders through National Drought Mitigation Center workshops and the federal government's drought portal (drought.gov), (2) teaching a Freshman Year Seminar (FYS) focused on drought science to 15 students/year, (3) establishing a Drought Science Learning Community to encourage integration of learning across courses and to involve students in one of the grand challenges facing society, (4) training and supporting three undergraduate students, and (5) involving actively a PhD student in all aspects of the research, including mentoring the undergraduate students.