CAREER: Quantifying drought and vulnerability indicators for water security in a changing environment

CBET 1653841 PI：Mishra，Ashok该项目将创建一个在极端干旱下改善水资源可持续性的新模式，并将其介绍给科学、社会和政策界。模型的结果将分发给目前正在处理水的可持续性问题的用户群体，并可能在未来这样做。预计该项目将直接使区域利益攸关方受益，以改善干旱条件下的水资源管理，并协助联邦机构提前预测对利益攸关方而言易受缺水影响的脆弱性。综合模式和方法将在萨凡纳河流域进行测试，预计这一方法将推广到该国其他经常发生干旱威胁水安全的地区，目的是通过三个研究目标评估极端干旱情况下的水安全。具体而言，前两个研究目标将侧重于量化干旱-水安全关系，通过评估依赖结构，级联行为和脆弱性阈值，而第三个目标是应用该方法，以改善决策，利用季节预测和利益相关者的信息。研究目标将与旨在解决当前水不安全问题的多学科教育和研究计划密切相关。

CBET 1653841 PI: Mishra, Ashok This project will create a new model for improving water sustainability under extreme droughts and introduce it to the scientific, social and policy communities. The model results will be distributed to user groups who are currently coping with water sustainability issues and will likely do so in the future. The project is anticipated to directly benefit regional stake holders to enable improved management of water resources during drought conditions, and also to assist federal agencies to forecast vulnerability to water stress in advance times that are relevant to stakeholders. The integrated model and approach will be tested in the Savannah River Basin, and it is anticipated that the methodology will be extendible to other parts of the country that witness frequent drought threats to water security.The goal is to evaluate water security in the context of drought extremes by addressing three research objectives. Specifically, the first two research objectives will focus on quantifying the drought-water security relationship by evaluating dependence structure, cascade behavior and vulnerability threshold, while the third objective is to apply the approach to improve decision making using seasonal forecast and stakeholder information. The research objectives will be tightly connected with a multidisciplinary education and research plan designed to provide solutions to current water insecurity problems.