Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Decision Research on Time, Risk, and Ambiguity

研究人员研究了未来结果发生时的决策（跨期决策）、结果以既定概率发生时的决策（风险决策）和结果在一定概率范围内发生时的决策（模糊决策）。在这项博士论文改进资助中，共同负责人将这些研究方向扩展到两个方向。一组实验检验了模糊时间距离对个体选择行为的影响。具体来说，这项研究将回答这样一个问题：人们如何对待在一个模糊的时间跨度内发生的未来结果？将使用四个具有实际回报的实验来解决这个问题。第二组研究考察了时间延迟如何影响对危险后果的感知。对风险事件的主观反应可能取决于对预期风险的感知距离未来有多远（例如，明年或10年后）。两项实验室实验将对人们对短期或长期风险的感知进行，以探索损失的概率或程度等因素的显著性如何随时间变化。这项研究有望为评估偏好和感知风险方面的未来结果提供一个有用的框架。就更广泛的影响而言，它将有助于沟通未来关键后果的风险，如经济趋势和预期的个人利益/风险。它还将潜在地帮助项目管理实践，涉及时间管理和薪酬包的设计。最后，它将促进公众对未来风险判断的准确性，并激发对未来风险的适当反应。

Researchers have studied decision making when outcomes occur in the future (intertemporal decision making), when outcomes occur with stated probabilities (risky decision making) and when outcomes occur with ranges of probability (decision making under ambiguity.) In this Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant, the co-PI extends these lines of research in two directions. One set of experiments examine the impact of an ambiguous temporal distance on an individual's choice behavior. Specifically, the research will answer the question: how do people treat a future outcome occurring during an ambiguous time span? Four experiments with real payoffs will be used to address this question.A second set of studies examines how time delays influence the perception of risky consequences. Subjective reactions to risky events may depend on how far into the future the anticipated risks are perceived (e.g. next year or 10 years from now). Two laboratory experiments will be conducted on people's perceptions of risks with short or long temporal distances, to explore how the saliency of factors like the probability or magnitude of losses change over time.This research promises to provide a useful framework for evaluating future outcomes in terms of both preference and perceived risk. In terms of broader impacts, it will be helpful in communicating risks on crucial future consequences such as trends of an economy and anticipated personal benefits/risks. It will also potentially help in project management practice with respect to time management and design of compensation packages. Finally, it will promote the accuracy of the general public's judgments of future risks, and also motivate appropriate reaction to future risks.