Collaborative Research: Understanding Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Initiation with DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) Observations and a Hierarchy of Models

该项目将利用一系列数值模式进行一系列实验，以提高对马登-朱利安涛动(MJO)的理解，MJO是一种在印度洋形成并缓慢向东传播到赤道中部太平洋的大范围天气模式。该项目是马登-朱利安振荡(迪纳摩)实地活动动态的一个组成部分，将在2011年10月至2012年3月期间在印度洋收集来自船只、岛屿和飞机的观测数据。实地活动是一个多机构的努力，由NSF、国家海洋和大气管理局、能源部和海军研究办公室提供资金，国际合作伙伴包括印度、日本、马尔代夫、法国和其他几个国家。该项目的具体目标是检验迪纳摩假说在MJO启动中的作用，评估模式性能，并为模式开发提供反馈。该项目的具体任务是：1)分析迪纳摩观测，直接测试迪纳摩假设，并为进一步的模拟工作提供背景和目标；2)使用明确表示湿对流的全球模式进行和分析后播实验，以增强迪纳摩观测在约束大规模预算和测试各种过程在MJO启动中的作用；3)将观测结果与有限区域上的云系统解析模式(CSRM)的结果进行比较，这两种方式都是使用从迪纳摩探空阵列得出的趋势以传统方式施加的，以及以更具理论性的模式进行强迫交互参数化；4)比较有限区域CSRM和单柱模式与使用相同强迫方法的对流参数化的结果；以及5)使用先前步骤的结果来改进和检验NCAR全球气候模式的一个版本的积云参数化。该项目中将使用的具体发电机观测包括来自无线电探空网的温度、湿度和平流趋势廓线、雷达观测和由海军研究办公室资助的综合地面通量数据集。该项目以及更广泛地说，对发电机的动力来自于MJO影响全球天气和气候的许多方式。MJO调节亚洲和澳大利亚季风系统的活跃期和间歇期，是厄尔尼诺事件的强迫因素，当它传播到太平洋时，会影响美国的天气。太平洋上的MJO活动对墨西哥湾飓风的形成有很大的影响。因此，改进对MJO的预测可以对其世界范围内的天气和气候影响进行长期提前预测(最多两周)，而在该项目下进行的研究可以作为MJO预测取得这种进展的基础。此外，该项目将为3名研究生和1名博士后提供支持和培训，从而促进热带气象学和气候学的下一代科学家。该项目还将支持一系列外联活动，包括招收少数族裔学生参加STEM学科的研究生教育，在K-8学校演讲，以及在所支助机构的全机构外联活动中开展迪纳摩和MJO主题活动。

This project will conduct a series of experiments with a hierarchy of numerical models to improve understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale weather pattern that forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward into the central equatorial Pacific. The project is one component of the DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, in which observations will be collected in the Indian Ocean from ships, islands, and aircraft between October 2011 and March 2012. The field campaign is a multi-agency effort with funding from NSF, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy, and the Office of Naval Research, with international partiners including India, Japan, the Maldives, France, and several other countries.The specific goals of this project are to test DYNAMO hypotheses on the roles of moistening processes and specific convective populations in MJO initiation, evaluate model performance, and provide feedback for model development. Specific tasks of the project are 1) to analyze the DYNAMO observations, both to test the DYNAMO hypotheses directly and to provide context and targets for further modeling efforts; 2) to perform and analyze hindcast experiments with global models that explicitly represent moist convection to augment DYNAMO observations in constraining the large-scale budgets and testing the roles of various processes in MJO initiation; 3) To compare observations with results from cloud-system-resolving models (CSRM) on limited domains, both forced in the traditional way using tendencies derived from the DYNAMO sounding array and in a more theoretical mode with forcing parameterized interactively; 4) to compare results from the limited domain CSRMs and single column models with convective parameterizations using the same forcing methods; and 5) To use results from the previous steps to improve and test a cumulus parameterization in a version of the NCAR global climate model. Specific DYNAMO observations to be used in the project include the temperature, moisture, and advective tendency profiles from the radiosonde network, radar observations, and an integrated surface flux dataset funded by the Office of Naval Research.Motivation for this project and more generally for DYNAMO comes from the many ways in which the MJO affects weather and climate worldwide. The MJO regulates the active and break periods of the Asian and Australian monsoon systems, serves as a forcing agent for El Nino events, and, when it propagates into the Pacific ocean, impacts weather over the United States. MJO activity over the Pacific Ocean has a strong influence on hurricane formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Improved prediction of the MJO could thus allow long-lead forecasts (up to two weeks) of its worldwide weather and climate impacts, and research conducted under this project could serve as the basis for such advances in MJO prediction. In addition, this project will provide support and training to three graduate students and a postdoctoral fellow, thereby promoting the next generation of scientists in tropical meteorology and climatology. The project will also support a range of outreach activities including recruitment of minority students to graduate education in a STEM discipline, presentations in K-8 schools, and DYNAMO and MJO-themed activities at institution-wide outreach events at the supported institutions.