Collaborative Research: Understanding Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Initiation with DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) Observations and a Hierarchy of Models

该项目将利用一系列数值模型进行一系列试验，以增进对马登-朱利安振荡的了解，这是一种在印度洋形成并缓慢向东传播到赤道太平洋中部的大规模天气模式。 该项目是Madden-Julian Oscillation（MSTO）现场活动的DYNAmics的一个组成部分，该活动将于2011年10月至2012年3月期间在印度洋的船只，岛屿和飞机上收集观测结果。 该实地活动是一项多机构的努力，由NSF、国家海洋和大气管理局、能源部和海军研究办公室提供资金，国际合作者包括印度、日本、马尔代夫、法国和其他几个国家。该项目的具体目标是检验MJO关于湿润过程和特定对流人口在MJO启动中的作用的假设，评估模型性能，并为模型开发提供反馈。 该项目的具体任务是：1）分析MJO观测，既直接测试MJO假设，又为进一步的模拟工作提供背景和目标; 2）使用明确代表湿对流的全球模式进行和分析后报实验，以增强MJO观测，限制大规模预算并测试各种过程在MJO启动中的作用; 3）在有限的区域内将观测结果与云系统分辨模式（CSRM）的结果进行比较，两者都是以传统的方式使用从OSO探空阵列得到的趋势强迫，以及以更理论化的方式使用交互参数化强迫; 4）比较有限域CSRMs模式和单柱模式在相同强迫条件下的对流参数化结果; 5）利用上述步骤的结果改进和检验NCAR全球气候模式中的积云参数化。 在该项目中使用的具体观测资料包括来自无线电探空仪网络的温度、湿度和平流趋势剖面、雷达观测资料以及由海军研究办公室资助的综合表面通量数据集。 MJO调节亚洲和澳大利亚季风系统的活跃期和中断期，作为厄尔尼诺事件的强迫因子，当它传播到太平洋时，影响美国的天气。 太平洋上空的MJO活动对墨西哥湾的飓风形成有很大影响。 因此，改进对MJO的预测可以对其全球天气和气候影响进行长期预测（长达两周），在该项目下进行的研究可以作为MJO预测方面取得进展的基础。 此外，该项目将为三名研究生和一名博士后研究员提供支助和培训，从而促进热带气象学和气候学领域的下一代科学家。 该项目还将支持一系列外展活动，包括招募少数民族学生接受STEM学科的研究生教育，在K-8学校进行演讲，以及在受支持机构的全机构外展活动中开展以MJO和MJO为主题的活动。

This project will conduct a series of experiments with a hierarchy of numerical models to improve understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale weather pattern that forms in the Indian Ocean and propagates slowly eastward into the central equatorial Pacific. The project is one component of the DYNAmics of the Madden-julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, in which observations will be collected in the Indian Ocean from ships, islands, and aircraft between October 2011 and March 2012. The field campaign is a multi-agency effort with funding from NSF, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy, and the Office of Naval Research, with international partiners including India, Japan, the Maldives, France, and several other countries.The specific goals of this project are to test DYNAMO hypotheses on the roles of moistening processes and specific convective populations in MJO initiation, evaluate model performance, and provide feedback for model development. Specific tasks of the project are 1) to analyze the DYNAMO observations, both to test the DYNAMO hypotheses directly and to provide context and targets for further modeling efforts; 2) to perform and analyze hindcast experiments with global models that explicitly represent moist convection to augment DYNAMO observations in constraining the large-scale budgets and testing the roles of various processes in MJO initiation; 3) To compare observations with results from cloud-system-resolving models (CSRM) on limited domains, both forced in the traditional way using tendencies derived from the DYNAMO sounding array and in a more theoretical mode with forcing parameterized interactively; 4) to compare results from the limited domain CSRMs and single column models with convective parameterizations using the same forcing methods; and 5) To use results from the previous steps to improve and test a cumulus parameterization in a version of the NCAR global climate model. Specific DYNAMO observations to be used in the project include the temperature, moisture, and advective tendency profiles from the radiosonde network, radar observations, and an integrated surface flux dataset funded by the Office of Naval Research.Motivation for this project and more generally for DYNAMO comes from the many ways in which the MJO affects weather and climate worldwide. The MJO regulates the active and break periods of the Asian and Australian monsoon systems, serves as a forcing agent for El Nino events, and, when it propagates into the Pacific ocean, impacts weather over the United States. MJO activity over the Pacific Ocean has a strong influence on hurricane formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Improved prediction of the MJO could thus allow long-lead forecasts (up to two weeks) of its worldwide weather and climate impacts, and research conducted under this project could serve as the basis for such advances in MJO prediction. In addition, this project will provide support and training to three graduate students and a postdoctoral fellow, thereby promoting the next generation of scientists in tropical meteorology and climatology. The project will also support a range of outreach activities including recruitment of minority students to graduate education in a STEM discipline, presentations in K-8 schools, and DYNAMO and MJO-themed activities at institution-wide outreach events at the supported institutions.