Collaborative Research: Continental-Scale Monitoring, Modeling and Forecasting of Phenological Responses to Climate Change

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The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). An interdisciplinary team, comprised of ecologists, geographers, and computer scientists, will develop a continental-scale observational network to study relationships between phenology and climate. Specifically, digital cameras posting live imagery to the Internet (webcams) will be used to monitor spring "green up" and autumn "brown down" of vegetation in different ecosystems across the United States. This project addresses several grand challenge questions in ecology, particularly with respect to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on plants and ecosystems. This project will develop predictions of how phenology may be affected by future climate change, and will quantify how future changes in phenology may impact some of the services that society derives from natural and managed ecosystems, such as agricultural crops, forest products, and clean water. In addition, the data produced from this project will be used improve the representation of phenological processes in large-scale climate models, which will help to reduce uncertainties in future climate forecasts. This project includes research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate-level students, and interdisciplinary training for two postdoctoral research associates. Summer interns in the Harvard Forest Research Experience for Undergraduates program, sponsored by NSF, will be engaged directly in this project, and collaboration both with the Harvard Forest LTER Schoolyard program and the USA National Phenology Network, will foster involvement of citizen scientists. By highlighting phenology as a tangible example of the biological impacts of climate change, these outreach efforts will raise public awareness about the environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century.