NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011

这一行动资助了NSF 2011财年生物学博士后研究奖学金，生物学与数学和物理科学的交叉点。该奖学金支持在宿主实验室为这位生物和数学交叉点的研究员进行研究和培训计划。为梅勒妮·哈希特设立的这项研究和培训计划的标题是“全球植物物种对气候变化反应的可变性评估”。这项研究的主办机构是华盛顿大学，赞助科学家Hille Ris Lambers Janneke博士和Mark Kot.管理并因此预测气候变化的影响是最大的社会挑战之一。由于全球物种和地区之间的差异而变得复杂，制定和确定管理战略的优先次序需要分析的现实主义和预测的准确性。这项研究试图通过包含自然系统中明显的复杂性的模型来理解和预测气候变化对物种限制的影响，特别是物种敏感性(功能特征)和应对气候变化的能力(人口和扩散速度)，以及可能与气候变化速度的相互作用。该方法利用基于阶段结构积分差分方程式的理论数学模型，以及在分层贝叶斯框架内建立的统计模型，以解决(1)气候和人口比率如何相互作用以确定对气候变化的反应；(2)功能特征或人口比率是否可以预测对气候变化的反应。该项目还确定了通过观察性研究不容易确定的潜在容忍阈值和关系，从而通过鼓励新的研究问题迅速推进生物学和概念理解领域。培训目标侧重于通过现代数学和统计方法、模型实施和验证技术方面的高级培训，以及通过口头陈述、书面文件和视觉展示进行沟通培训，发展进行跨学科研究所需的技能。更广泛的影响包括通过书面文件和介绍以及公众宣传将成果传播给保护和自然资源组织。

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011, Intersections of Biology and Mathematical and Physical Sciences. The fellowship supports a research and training plan in a host laboratory for the Fellow at the intersection of biology and mathematics. The title of the research and training plan for this fellowship to Melanie Harsh is "Global assessment of the variability of plant species response to climate change." The host institution for this research is University of Washington with sponsoring scientists Drs. Hille Ris lambers Janneke and Mark Kot.Managing, and therefore predicting, the effects of climate change is one of the greatest societal challenges. Developing and prioritizing management strategies, complicated by variability between species and regions globally, require realism in analyses and accuracy in predictions. This research seeks to understand and predict climate change impacts on species limits through models that incorporate complexity apparent in natural systems, specifically, species sensitivity (functional traits) and ability to respond to climate change (demographic and dispersal rates) along with possible interactions with the rate of climate change. The approach utilizes theoretical mathematical models, based on stage-structured integrodifference equations, and statistical models, built within a hierarchical Bayesian framework to address (1) How climate and demographic rates interact to determine response to climate change; (2) If functional traits or demographic rates can predict response to climate change. This project also identifies potential threshold limits of tolerance and relationships not readily identified through observational studies, thus rapidly advancing the field of biology and conceptual understanding by encouraging new research questions.Training goals focus on developing the necessary skills to conduct interdisciplinary research through advanced training in modern mathematical and statistical methods, model implementation, and validation techniques, as well as communication training through oral presentations, written documents, and visual displays. Broader impacts include the dissemination of the results to conservation and natural resource organizations through written documents and presentations as well as public outreach.