Can Institutions Cure Clientelism?

制度可以治愈庇护主义吗？

• 批准号: 1119908
• 负责人: Daniel Gingerich
• 金额: $ 14.56万
• 依托单位: University of Virginia Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2014-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1119908&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Institutions; Cure; Clientelism

The ballot is the fundamental instrument of democracy in the modern world. Perhaps more than any other device utilized in contemporary elections, it has come to embody the process by which voter preferences structure the makeup of the ruling elite. Yet most citizens of democratic polities take for granted the series of institutional innovations in the dissemination and composition of the ballot that made it possible for this instrument to serve today as a symbol of the free and authentic convictions of voters. Among such innovations, it was a specific packet of reforms in ballot preparation and distribution, the so-called Australian ballot reforms, which were responsible for one of the most crucial turning points in the history of democracy - the transition from de jure to de facto secrecy in vote choice.This project will provide a rigorous examination of how the use of the Australian ballot (AB)- a uniform ballot paper permitting the selection of any registered candidate and which is printed and distributed by electoral authorities (as opposed to candidates or parties)- affected the fundamental structure of party politics in Brazil after its introduction in the early 1960s. Engaging the claims of a literature on institutions and clientelism in developing democracies, the impact of the AB on four key outcomes will be evaluated: 1) the electoral strength of incumbent state party machines; 2) the degree of electoral control enjoyed by local vote brokers; 3) the electoral strength of right parties; and 4) the scope of participation in the electoral process.In order to get leverage on the impact of the AB, this project will examine municipal-level vote returns for federal deputy and senate contests in Brazil during the 1958-1966 period. The analysis will exploit the fact that the peculiar manner in which the AB was rolled out by the country's civilian and military rulers created a natural experiment of history of exceptionally rare purity. During this period, legislative elections - which put seats for both the Chamber of Deputies and Senate simultaneously up for grabs - were held at three different times: 1958, 1962, and 1966. In 1958, the AB was in effect throughout all of Brazil for senatorial contests, whereas candidate printed ballots were utilized throughout all of Brazil for the deputy contests. In 1962, the AB remained in effect for all of Brazil for the senatorial contests but was also extended to deputy contests in the state of São Paulo, the city of Rio de Janeiro, and state capitals. In 1966, basically the same situation obtained, save for the fact that the AB for deputy contests was extended further to all municipalities with more than one hundred thousand inhabitants. Taking maximal advantage of the geographically and institutionally targeted and temporally staggered nature of ballot reform in Brazil, this project will employ several variants of the difference-in-difference technique to estimate the causal impact of the AB on the outcomes of interest.Empirically evaluating the impact of the AB on the structure of political representation has been one of the great challenges of institutionally oriented social science. It is a task which has courted the efforts of political scientists, economists, and historians, and one which has spawned numerous investigations into the historical experiences of polities around the world. Given the peculiarities of the AB's adoption in Brazil, it is reasonable to posit that the current project has the potential to produce the cleanest evaluation of the impact of this institution in the entire social science corpus on the subject. As a consequence, the findings of this project are likely to contribute to ongoing policy debates about the attractiveness of adopting the AB within polities that have not yet done so. More broadly, the research design employed by this project may in the future serve as a model of how to simultaneously exploit spatial, temporal, and institutional variation in the adoption of formal rules in order to estimate the impact of aspects of democratic institutional design. The project will also have a lasting impact in terms of training graduate students and educating undergraduates. The substantial administrative and coding duties required of each group of students will provide a hands on tutorial on the organization and execution of large scale quantitative research projects in the social sciences.

投票是现代世界民主的基本工具。也许比当代选举中使用的任何其他手段都要多，它已经体现了选民偏好构成统治精英的过程。然而，民主政体的大多数公民认为，在选票的传播和组成方面的一系列制度创新是理所当然的，正是这些创新使这一工具今天成为选民自由和真实信念的象征。在这些创新中，有一个具体的改革包，在选票的准备和分配，所谓的澳大利亚选票改革，这是民主历史上最重要的转折点之一--投票选择从法律上的保密过渡到事实上的保密。本项目将严格审查澳大利亚选票的使用--统一的选票，允许选择任何登记的候选人，由选举当局（而不是候选人或政党）印刷和分发，自1960年代初引入以来，影响了巴西政党政治的基本结构。在发展中民主国家的机构和裙带主义的文献中，将评估AB对四个关键结果的影响：1）现任国家政党机器的选举实力; 2）当地投票经纪人享有的选举控制程度; 3）右翼政党的选举实力;四是参与选举过程的范围。为了发挥上诉机构的影响力，本项目将研究1958-1966年期间巴西联邦众议员和参议员竞选的州一级投票结果。分析将利用这样一个事实，即该国的文职和军事统治者推出AB的特殊方式创造了一个异常罕见的纯粹的历史自然实验。在这一时期，立法选举--众议院和参议院的席位同时竞争--在三个不同的时间举行：1958年、1962年和1966年。1958年，巴西全国的参议员选举都采用了选举法，而全国的议员选举都采用了候选人印刷选票。1962年，宪法修正案在巴西全国的参议员选举中仍然有效，但也扩展到圣保罗州、里约热内卢市和各州首府的代表选举。1966年，情况基本相同，只是代理人选举的上诉机构进一步扩大到所有居民超过10万的市镇。最大限度地利用地理和制度的目标和时间交错性质的投票改革在巴西，本项目将采用几种不同的差异差异技术来估计的因果关系的影响AB的结果interests.Empirically评估的影响AB的结构上的政治代表一直是制度导向的社会科学的巨大挑战之一。这是一项政治科学家、经济学家和历史学家努力完成的任务，也是一项催生了对世界各地政治历史经验的无数调查的任务。鉴于巴西采用AB的特殊性，有理由认为，目前的项目有可能对该机构在整个社会科学语料库中对该主题的影响进行最清晰的评估。因此，本项目的研究结果可能有助于正在进行的政策辩论，即在尚未这样做的政体中采用AB的吸引力。更广泛地说，这个项目所采用的研究设计可能在未来作为一个模型，如何同时利用空间，时间和制度的变化，在通过正式的规则，以估计民主制度设计方面的影响。该项目还将在培养研究生和教育本科生方面产生持久影响。每组学生所需的大量行政和编码职责将为社会科学中大型定量研究项目的组织和执行提供实践指导。