Firms, Networks and Shocks: An Empirical Perspective

该奖项资助研究经济冲击如何通过单个企业之间的网络联系在整个经济中传播。现代经济是由错综复杂的生产单位组成的。这种生产网络的结构是冲击如何在整个经济中传播的关键决定因素之一。了解生产网络的结构及其如何影响经济冲击的传播，可以帮助政府制定政策，如何准备应对不利冲击，如自然灾害、能源价格飙升以及主要供应商和客户破产等金融冲击。生产网络结构及其对冲击传播的影响在以前的研究中已经研究过，但只是在部门一级使用投入产出表。 第一个项目将实证描述美国企业间生产网络的特征，映射生产经济中的个体制造商-客户联系。研究人员开发了一个网络形成模型，以适应网络的关键事实。 然后，该模型被用来模拟对单个企业的冲击如何通过供应链传播，并可能传播到整个经济。第二个项目将研究多工厂公司拥有的生产工厂之间的公司内部联系。了解为什么企业扩展到垂直相关的业务可以为我们提供有关管理/创业人才如何在经济中扩散的见解，也可能为垂直收购/兼并政策提供信息。该项目揭示并旨在解释一个经验之谜：有很少的内部出货之间看似垂直相关的多工厂公司的工厂。这表明，纵向一体化不一定是促进生产单位之间的有形投入的流动，而是无形投入，如管理做法和研发产出/制造技术。该提案中的第三个项目是由美国财政部2009年的汽车保修承诺计划推动的，该计划为通用汽车和克莱斯勒发布的保修提供了政府支持。调查者研究了耐用品制造商（如汽车制造商）的财务健康状况与消费者对公司生存能力的期望之间的联系。在使用二手车拍卖的非常详细的数据建立了美国汽车行业中这种联系的存在和程度之后，通过经验校准模型研究了由于多重均衡/银行挤兑类型动态而导致美国汽车制造业基本不稳定的可能性。然后，该模型被用来评估政府政策（如保修支持计划）的有效性，以阻止这种动态。

This award funds research on how economic shocks move through an entire economy via network links between individual firms.A modern economy is comprised of intricately linked production units. The structure of this production network is one of the key determinants of how shocks are transmitted throughout the economy. Understanding the structure of the production network and how it affects the propagation of economic shocks can inform government policy regarding how to prepare for and recover from adverse shocks, such as natural disasters, energy price spikes, and financial shocks such as the bankruptcy of key suppliers and customers.The network structure of production and its effect on shock propagation has been studied in previous research, but only at the sectoral level using input-output tables. The first project will empirically characterize the inter-firm production network in the U.S., mapping the individual supplier-customer links in the production economy. The investigator develops a model of network formation to fit key facts about the network. That model is then used to simulate how shocks to individual firms propagate through the supply chain and, potentially, to the whole economy. The second project will study intra-firm linkages between production plants owned by multi-plant firms. Understanding why firms expand into vertically related businesses can provide us with insights regarding how managerial/entrepreneurial talent diffuses through the economy, and also potentially inform policy regarding vertical acquisitions/mergers. The project uncovers and aims to explain an empirical puzzle: there are very few internal shipments between seemingly vertically related plants of multi-plant firms. This suggests vertical integration is not necessarily about facilitating the flow of physical inputs between productive units, but rather intangible inputs, such as management practices and R&D output/manufacturing know-how. The third project in the proposal was motivated by U.S. Treasury's Auto Warranty Commitment program in 2009, which provided a government back-stop against warranties issued by GM and Chrysler. The investigator studies the linkage between the financial health of warranty-issuing durable goods manufacturers (such as auto manufacturers) and consumer expectations regarding the firm's viability. After establishing the existence and magnitude of this link in the U.S. auto industry using very detailed data on used car auctions, the potential for fundamental instabilities in the U.S. auto manufacturing sector due to multiple equilibria/bank-run type dynamics is studied through an empirically calibrated model. The model is then used to assess the effectiveness of government policies (such as warranty back-stop programs) to thwart such dynamics.