RAPID: Initial Assessment of IPCC AR5 Multi-model Ensembles for Hydroclimatic Features at Global and Regional Scales

RAPID：IPCC AR5 多模式集合对全球和区域尺度水文气候特征的初步评估

• 批准号: 1128164
• 负责人: Venkatesh Merwade
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: Purdue University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-01 至 2013-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1128164&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Initial; Assessment; IPCC; AR5

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project examines changes in hydroclimate in model simulations prepared for the AR5, using observational datasets to evaluate model performance in variables including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. A key issue to be addressed is the effect of land use and land cover change (LULC), which is expected to be significant for the hydrological cycle on regional spatial scales. Between 1700 and 2000, the global extent of natural vegetation decreased by 45%, and agricultural land area increased by 500%. In addition, a number of LULCC impacts have been found in model sensitivity studies, including radiative cooling of global and regional climate as a result of increase in surface albedo, regional warming due to decrease in evapotranspiration, and global warming due to CO2 emission from land cover change. The simulation ensemble prepared for the AR5 is the first of its kind to include simulations of the response to LULC alone, so that the climatic impact of this potentially important forcing can be assessed through comparisons of model simulations forced by LULC, greenhouse gas increases, and other forcing factors. Thus, work under this grant will explore both the ability of climate models to simulate important hydroclimate variables and the extent to which these variables are affected by LULC.The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. Decision makers will benefit from an assessment of the quality of the climate models used to project climate changes due to global warming, as well as an evaluation of the impact of LULC on climate (particularly the hydrological cycle) at regional and global scales.

这是16个快速反应（RAPID）项目之一，作为亲爱的同事信（NSF 11-006）的结果，鼓励对政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告（IPCC AR 5）准备的气候模型模拟进行诊断分析。通过这些项目开展的研究，有望实现更详细的模式间比较，更好地理解稳健模式的行为，更好地理解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。本项目使用观测数据集，在为第五次评估报告准备的模式模拟中考察水文气候的变化，评估降水、蒸散、土壤湿度和径流等变量的模式性能。 需要解决的一个关键问题是土地利用和土地覆被变化的影响，预计这将对区域空间尺度上的水文循环产生重大影响。 在1700年至2000年间，全球自然植被面积减少了45%，农业用地面积增加了500%。此外，在模式敏感性研究中还发现了一些土地利用、土地利用变化和气候变化的影响，包括由于地表蒸发量增加导致的全球和区域气候的辐射冷却、由于蒸散量减少导致的区域变暖以及由于土地覆盖变化导致的CO2排放导致的全球变暖。 为第五次评估报告准备的模拟集合是第一个只包括对LULC响应的模拟的集合，因此可以通过比较LULC、温室气体增加和其他强迫因子的模式模拟来评估这一潜在重要强迫的气候影响。 因此，该项目的工作将探索气候模型模拟重要水文气候变量的能力以及这些变量受LULC影响的程度。该项目的更广泛影响在于其对IPCC第五次评估报告的支持，该报告旨在为全球决策者提供有关气候变化及其后果的信息。 对用于预测全球变暖引起的气候变化的气候模型的质量进行评估，以及对LULC在区域和全球尺度上对气候（特别是水文循环）的影响进行评估，将使决策者受益。