DRRC/Collaborative Research: Emergency Management in Rural America: Decision-Makers Use of Climate Science in Flood Planning and Management

这个农村社区抗灾能力(DRRC)合作研究项目的目的是研究在美国农村地区使用季节性气候预测进行洪水规划和管理的障碍和机会，重点关注1)使农村从业人员有可能使用科技信息的特点；2)预测信息农村用户网络的结构和功能；3)小组决策过程在如何以及是否在农村洪水管理中采用气候预测的影响。该方法首先对试图使用季节性气候信息的农村地区进行了四个案例研究。之后，将在国家一级对农村地区从事洪水规划和应急管理的利益攸关方进行调查，以调查使用气候信息的经验和影响因素。最后，将对美国两个农村地区的地方、地区和州一级的利益相关者进行面对面模拟，以调查网络特征、群体偏见和决策结构如何影响农村洪水规划和管理中的气候预测使用。该项目的主要智力价值在于提高了对弱网络行政组织和强网络行政组织中信任和协作发展的理解，并将紧密联系的城市响应网络中的应急管理决策的文献扩展到分散的农村灾前规划和减灾。这项工作还提出了捕捉和测量与不确定信息特征有关的偏好以及比较基于个人的陈述偏好和群体决策的方法。季节性气候信息，如提前几个月预报厄尔尼诺条件，可用于改进与天气有关的极端事件(如洪水)的规划和管理。不幸的是，即使季节性预报信息看起来很清楚，将有关可能的气候条件的知识付诸实践，以改进极端事件发生前的规划，也会带来困难。洪水和其他应急经理通常在预算紧张的情况下工作，他们也必须迅速做出决定。此外，管理者可能会发现，很难向公众和政策制定者清楚地传达高度不确定的事件可能产生的一系列结果。农村地区的情况可能尤其如此，那里的地理距离使通信变得复杂，技术专业知识比集中的城市地区分布得更广。该项目审查了提供预报信息的方式和参与农村地区应急管理的人员相互作用的方式是否影响利用季节性气候信息改进规划和管理的能力，以减少洪灾造成的社会损失。

The objective of this Disaster Resilience for Rural Communities (DRRC) collaborative research project is to examine the obstacles to and opportunities for the use of seasonal climate forecasts in flood planning and management in U.S. rural areas, focusing on the 1) characteristics that make scientific and technical information likely to be used by rural practitioners; 2) structure and function of networks of rural users of forecast information and; 3) influence of group decision processes in decision making about how and whether to employ climate forecasts in rural flood management. The approach begins with four case studies of rural regions that have attempted to use seasonal climate information. After that, a national-level survey of stakeholders engaged in flood planning and emergency management in rural areas to investigate experiences with and factors affecting the use of climate information will be implemented. Finally, in-person simulations of local, regional, and state-level stakeholders in two US rural regions to investigate how network features, group biases, and decision structures influence climate forecast use in rural flood planning and management will be conducted. The chief intellectual merit of this project lies in enhancing understanding of the development of trust and collaboration in weak and strong network administrative organization and in extending the literature on emergency management decision-making in tightly-knit urban response networks to dispersed rural pre-disaster planning and mitigation. This work also advances approaches to capture and measure preferences related to characteristics of uncertain information and to compare individual-based stated preferences and group decision making.Seasonal climate information such as forecasts of El Niño conditions months ahead of time can be used to improve planning and management of weather-related extreme events such as floods. Unfortunately, even when seasonal forecast information appears clear, putting knowledge about likely climate conditions into practice to improve planning for extreme events before they happen poses difficulties. Flood and other emergency managers typically work in situations with tight budgets, and they also must make decisions quickly. In addition, managers may find it difficult to clearly communicate to the public and policymakers the range of possible outcomes from events that are highly uncertain. This may be particularly the case in rural areas, where geographic distances complicate communication and technical expertise disperses more widely than in concentrated urban areas. This project examines whether the way in which forecast information is presented and the way in which those involved in emergency management in rural areas interact with each other influence the ability to use seasonal climate information to improve planning and management to reduce societal losses from floods.