DRRC/Collaborative Research: Emergency Management in Rural America: Decision-Makers Use of Climate Science in Flood Planning and Management

DRRC/合作研究：美国农村应急管理：决策者在洪水规划和管理中利用气候科学

• 批准号: 1134539
• 负责人: Kelly Redmond
• 金额: $ 10.57万
• 依托单位: Nevada System of Higher Education, Desert Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1134539&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DRRC; Collaborative; Research; Emergency; Management

The objective of this Disaster Resilience for Rural Communities (DRRC) collaborative research project is to examine the obstacles to and opportunities for the use of seasonal climate forecasts in flood planning and management in U.S. rural areas, focusing on the 1) characteristics that make scientific and technical information likely to be used by rural practitioners; 2) structure and function of networks of rural users of forecast information and; 3) influence of group decision processes in decision making about how and whether to employ climate forecasts in rural flood management. The approach begins with four case studies of rural regions that have attempted to use seasonal climate information. After that, a national-level survey of stakeholders engaged in flood planning and emergency management in rural areas to investigate experiences with and factors affecting the use of climate information will be implemented. Finally, in-person simulations of local, regional, and state-level stakeholders in two US rural regions to investigate how network features, group biases, and decision structures influence climate forecast use in rural flood planning and management will be conducted. The chief intellectual merit of this project lies in enhancing understanding of the development of trust and collaboration in weak and strong network administrative organization and in extending the literature on emergency management decision-making in tightly-knit urban response networks to dispersed rural pre-disaster planning and mitigation. This work also advances approaches to capture and measure preferences related to characteristics of uncertain information and to compare individual-based stated preferences and group decision making.Seasonal climate information such as forecasts of El Niño conditions months ahead of time can be used to improve planning and management of weather-related extreme events such as floods. Unfortunately, even when seasonal forecast information appears clear, putting knowledge about likely climate conditions into practice to improve planning for extreme events before they happen poses difficulties. Flood and other emergency managers typically work in situations with tight budgets, and they also must make decisions quickly. In addition, managers may find it difficult to clearly communicate to the public and policymakers the range of possible outcomes from events that are highly uncertain. This may be particularly the case in rural areas, where geographic distances complicate communication and technical expertise disperses more widely than in concentrated urban areas. This project examines whether the way in which forecast information is presented and the way in which those involved in emergency management in rural areas interact with each other influence the ability to use seasonal climate information to improve planning and management to reduce societal losses from floods.

这个农村社区抗灾能力（DRRC）合作研究项目的目标是研究在美国农村地区的洪水规划和管理中使用季节性气候预报的障碍和机会，重点是1)使科学和技术信息可能被农村从业者使用的特征；2)农村预报信息用户网络的结构和功能；3)群体决策过程对气候预报在农村洪水管理决策中的影响。该方法首先对农村地区进行了四个案例研究，这些研究都试图利用季节气候信息。之后，将在全国范围内对农村地区从事洪水规划和应急管理的利益攸关方进行调查，以调查使用气候信息的经验和影响因素。最后，将对美国两个农村地区的地方、区域和州级利益相关者进行亲自模拟，以调查网络特征、群体偏见和决策结构如何影响气候预测在农村洪水规划和管理中的应用。本项目的主要智力价值在于增进对弱和强网络行政组织中信任与协作的发展的理解，并将关于紧密联系的城市反应网络中的应急管理决策的文献推广到分散的农村灾前规划和减灾。这项工作还推进了捕捉和测量与不确定信息特征相关的偏好的方法，并比较了基于个人的陈述偏好和群体决策。季节性气候信息，如提前几个月对厄尔尼诺Niño的预测，可用于改进与天气有关的极端事件（如洪水）的规划和管理。不幸的是，即使季节预报信息看起来很清晰，在极端事件发生之前，将关于可能的气候条件的知识付诸实践，以改进对极端事件的规划，也会带来困难。洪水和其他应急管理人员通常在预算紧张的情况下工作，他们也必须迅速做出决定。此外，管理人员可能会发现很难向公众和政策制定者清楚地传达高度不确定事件可能产生的结果范围。这种情况在农村地区可能尤其如此，因为地理距离使通讯复杂化，而且技术专门知识比集中的城市地区分散得更广。本项目考察预报信息的呈现方式和农村地区应急管理人员相互作用的方式是否会影响利用季节性气候信息改进规划和管理以减少洪水造成的社会损失的能力。