AGS-PRF: Towards a Dynamical Understanding of Climate Induced Disaster in Mongolian: Identifying Mechanisms, Change and Vulnerability

在AGS-PRF（博士后研究奖学金）征集的支持下，研究人员的目标是利用现代和古气候数据来研究蒙古极端天气和气候事件的发生，如暴风雪。 暴风雪的特点是夏季干旱，随后是严冬。 由于环境条件决定了资源的可用性，这种严重事件对游牧民及其居住地的影响可能是深远的。通过研究暴风雪的气候学和时空变化，研究者试图更好地理解气候与环境之间的关系。具体来说，研究者的目标是：1）识别和量化景观的时空变化（如植被丰富、干旱压力和荒漠化），增加了对气候变化的脆弱性;（2）评价暴风雪和其他极端事件的空间连贯性，查明脆弱区域并绘制地图;（3）评价已知事件期间的海洋/大气动态，查明任何模式或共性;利用从目标1、2和3中获得的数据和知识，以及历史、气象、卫星，更广泛的影响包括在国际上加强气候科学和经济学之间的联系，并就气候动态问题与风险管理专业人员建立伙伴关系。

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to use modern and paleoclimate data to examine the occurrence of extreme weather and climatic events in Mongolia such as the dzud. A dzud event is characterized by summer drought followed by a harsh winter. The impact of such severe events on nomadic persons and the landscape they occupy could be profound since environmental conditions dictate resource availability. By examining the climatology and spatial and temporal variations of the dzud, the researcher seeks to better understand the relationship between climate and environment.Specifically, the researcher aims to: 1) identify and quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the landscape (e.g. vegetation abundance, drought stress and desertification) that increase vulnerability to climate change; 2) evaluate the spatial coherence of dzud and other extreme events and identify and map vulnerable regions; 3) evaluate the ocean/atmosphere dynamics during known events and identify any patterns or commonalities; and 4) model and reconstruct dzud and extreme events using data and knowledge gained from objective 1, 2 and 3, as well as historical, meteorological, satellite, and paleoclimatic data.The broader impacts involve enabling greater interface between climate science and economics, internationally, and creating partnerships with risk management professionals regarding issues surrounding climate dynamics.