I-Corps: IDecideFast - A web-based application for effective decision making for the layperson

拟议的工作将在几个方向上推进不确定性下的决策领域。(1)它将提供各种新的研究算法的效用和概率启发的第一个应用程序。(2)聊天室将确定广泛的个人面临的共同决定，并为有针对性的研究提供方向。(3)该平台的信息收集阶段将为收集不同来源的信息提供一个独特的论坛，并将用于研究汇总专家意见和研究核实现实生活中的专家的质量。(4)收集法庭和外科手术的成功率等统计数据，将为将专家意见与数据结合起来的研究提供基础，并为研究人员提供条件概率数据库。该提案将使决策分析得到广泛应用，并将其纳入个人的日常生活。任何有兴趣做出决定（个人，财务，医疗和投标）的人都有能力登录到网络系统，并获得最新的偏好和信念启发方法，并与面临类似决定的其他决策者互动。决策平台还将为有经验的决策建模人员提供一个统一的框架，以便上传其模板供传播。贝叶斯网络将从用户和各种历史记录中创建，并将在未来的广泛决策中使用。用户还可以访问更具代表性的多属性效用函数模型，以改进医疗和环境决策。那些面临创伤性决定并愿意分享他们的经验以帮助他人的人将有一个合适的论坛。

The proposed work will advance the field of decision making under uncertainty in several directions. (1) It will provide the first application of a variety of new research algorithms for utility and probability elicitation. (2) Chat rooms will identify common decisions faced by a broad range of individuals, and will provide direction for targeted research. (3) The information gathering phase of the platform will provide a unique forum for collecting information from different sources, and will be used for research on aggregating expert opinion and research on verifying the quality of real-life experts. (4) The collection of statistics, such as records of success rates in courts and medical surgery, will provide basis for research on aggregating expert opinion with data, and a database of conditional probabilities to be used by researchers.The proposal will enable widespread use of decision analysis and will incorporate it into daily lives of individuals. Anyone who is interested in making a decision (personal, financial, medical and bidding) will have the ability to log on to the web system and receive up to date methods for preference and belief elicitation, and interact with other decision makers facing similar decisions. The decision platform will also provide a unifying framework for experienced decision modelers to upload their templates for dissemination. Bayesian Networks will be created from users and various historic records and will be of use in a wide range of future decisions. Users will also have access to more representative models of multi-attribute utility functions for improved medical and environmental decisions. People who have faced a traumatic decision and would like to share their experience to help others will have a suitable forum.