I-Corps: IDecideFast - A web-based application for effective decision making for the layperson

这项拟议的工作将在几个方向上推动不确定性决策领域的发展。(1)它将提供各种新的效用和概率启发式研究算法的首次应用。(2)聊天室将确定广泛的个人面临的共同决定，并将为有针对性的研究提供方向。(3)该平台的信息收集阶段将提供一个从不同来源收集信息的独特论坛，并将用于收集专家意见的研究和核实现实生活中专家的质量的研究。(4)收集统计资料，例如法庭和医疗手术的成功率纪录，将为研究如何综合专家意见和数据提供基础，以及一个供研究人员使用的条件概率数据库。这项建议将使决策分析得到广泛应用，并将其纳入个人的日常生活。任何对决策感兴趣的人(个人、财务、医疗和投标)都将能够登录到网络系统，获得最新的偏好和信念诱导方法，并与面临类似决策的其他决策者互动。决策平台还将为经验丰富的决策建模师提供一个统一的框架，以便上传他们的模板以供传播。贝叶斯网络将从用户和各种历史记录中创建，并将在未来的广泛决策中使用。用户还将有机会使用更具代表性的多属性效用函数模型，以改进医疗和环境决策。那些面临痛苦决定并愿意分享自己的经验来帮助他人的人将有一个合适的论坛。

The proposed work will advance the field of decision making under uncertainty in several directions. (1) It will provide the first application of a variety of new research algorithms for utility and probability elicitation. (2) Chat rooms will identify common decisions faced by a broad range of individuals, and will provide direction for targeted research. (3) The information gathering phase of the platform will provide a unique forum for collecting information from different sources, and will be used for research on aggregating expert opinion and research on verifying the quality of real-life experts. (4) The collection of statistics, such as records of success rates in courts and medical surgery, will provide basis for research on aggregating expert opinion with data, and a database of conditional probabilities to be used by researchers.The proposal will enable widespread use of decision analysis and will incorporate it into daily lives of individuals. Anyone who is interested in making a decision (personal, financial, medical and bidding) will have the ability to log on to the web system and receive up to date methods for preference and belief elicitation, and interact with other decision makers facing similar decisions. The decision platform will also provide a unifying framework for experienced decision modelers to upload their templates for dissemination. Bayesian Networks will be created from users and various historic records and will be of use in a wide range of future decisions. Users will also have access to more representative models of multi-attribute utility functions for improved medical and environmental decisions. People who have faced a traumatic decision and would like to share their experience to help others will have a suitable forum.