Spatiotemporally explicit incidence analysis of plant functional groups in meta-communities (EuroDIVERSITY 040)

在群落形成中，进入物种和现存物种的聚集可以有不同的方向，这取决于相互作用物种的功能特征、景观物种库的大小以及在景观尺度上的集合群落中多个相互作用物种的扩散情况。为了预测功能生物多样性，需要了解现存群落的特征组成、进入物种的特征和时空元群落结构之间的相互作用。该提案在EURODIVERSITY CRP汇编的范围内解决了这一问题。(A)群落聚集的时间轴将从时间序列分析中得到理解，其中物种动态由功能特征组合来解释。(B)群落聚集的空间轴将通过对元群落中植物的关联分析来理解，这一分析由当地社区的时空安排来解释。具有不同破碎化程度的城市农村准社区的斑块将在现场绘制地图。对于目标群落的所有物种，Logistic回归模型预测了与立地肥力和干扰有关的空间上明确的植物物种发生率，从而提供了集合群落中每个物种的斑块矩阵结构。空间显式统计建模要求记录目标群落周围的预测栖息地在几年内的物种发生率。在Logistic回归中，每个物种的殖民/灭绝事件将与居民群落的距离、斑块大小和特征组成作为解释变量进行拟合。这些结果将被用来分析所有响应物种的功能特性。(C)将综合对组装项目合作伙伴的个别分析，以找出欧洲不同地区生态差异的一般组装程序。

In community formation, the assembly of entering species and extant species can take different directions, depending on the functional traits of the interacting species, the size of the landscape species pool, and on dispersal of multiple interacting species in a metacommunity on the landscape scale. The interplay between trait composition of extant communities, traits of entering species and spatiotemporal metacommunity configuration needs to be understood for predicting functional biodiversity. The proposal addresses this issue in the context of the EURODIVERSITY CRP ASSEMBLE. (A) The temporal axis of community assembly will be understood from time series analysis where species dynamics are explained by functional trait combinations. (B) The spatial axis of community assembly will be understood from incidence analysis of plants in a metacommunity, explained by the spatiotemporal arrangement of local communities. Patches of an urban ruderal metacommunity with different degrees of fragmentation will be mapped in the field. For all species of the target metacommunity, logistic regression models predict spatially explicit plant species incidences in relation to site fertility and disturbance and thus provide the patch ¿ matrix structure for each species of the metacommunity. Spatially explicit statistical modelling requires to record species incidences in predicted habitats around a target communities during several years. Colonisation / extinction events of each species will be fitted with distance, patch size and trait composition of resident communities as explanatory variables in logistic regression. These results will be used to analyse functional traits of all responsive species. (C) Individual analyses of ASSEMBLE project partners will be synthesised to find general assembly processes across ecological differences in various European landscapes.