CGV: Large: Collaborative Research: Modeling, Display, and Understanding Uncertainty in Simulations for Policy Decision Making

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The goal of this collaborative project (1212806, Ross T. Whitaker, University of Utah; 1212501, Donald H. House, Clemson University; 1212577, Mary Hegarty, University of California-Santa Barbara; 1212790, Michael K. Lindell, Texas A&M University Main Campus) is to establish the computational and cognitive foundations for capturing and conveying the uncertainty associated with predictive simulations, so that software tools for visualizing these forecasts can accurately and effectively present this information about to a wide range of users. Three demonstration applications are closely integrated into the research plan: one in air quality management, a second in wildfire hazard management, and a third in hurricane evacuation management. This project is the first large-scale effort to consider the visualization of uncertainty in a systematic, end-to-end manner, with the goal of developing a general set of principles as well as a set of tools for accurately and effectively conveying the appropriate level of uncertainties for a range of decision-making processes of national importance.The primary impact of this work will be methods and tools for conveying the results of predictive simulations and their associated uncertainties, resulting in better informed public policy decisions in situations that rely on such forecasts. Scientific contributions are expected in the areas of simulation and uncertainty quantification, visualization, perception and cognition, and decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Results will be broadly disseminated in a variety of ways across a wide range of academic disciplines and application areas, and will be available at the project Web site (http://visunc.sci.utah.edu). The multidisciplinary nature of the research and the close integration of the participating research groups will provide a unique educational environment for graduate students and other trainees, while also broadening the participation in computer science beyond traditional boundaries.