Collaborative Research: Reorganization of stresses beneath greater Tokyo after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki M9 earthquake
合作研究:2011 年东北冲 M9 级地震后大东京地区地下应力的重组
基本信息
- 批准号:1215757
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 17.7万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2012
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2012-09-15 至 2015-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
The March 11, 2011, Tohoku-Oki earthquake at magnitude 9 was the largest event in Japan's 1400+ years of recorded history. The impact of the earthquake and resulting tsunami on the people of Japan was severe, from the approximately 20,000 fatalities and unaccounted persons to the estimated ¥10 trillion (US$ 120 billion) of economic loss. The Tohoku-Oki rupture was located north of Tokyo, leading to a strong societal interest within Japan as to what is in store for their capital city. Specifically, whether the Tohoku-Oki earthquake may have accelerated the next significant earthquake to more directly impact the Tokyo metropolitan region. Recent Japan government studies estimate that a shallow megathrust earthquake similar to the 1923 M7.9 "Great Kanto" earthquake would result in ~11,000 fatalities and up to US$ 3 trillion in economic damage. Concern for a worsening of seismic hazards in Tokyo region is warranted based on recent advances in earthquake science that indicate (a) that an earthquake that relieves stress in one area will build up stress in adjacent areas, and (b) while stress changes occur rapidly during the earthquake, postseismic processes will lead to the redistribution of crustal stresses for years to many decades after a large earthquake. Understanding the ongoing time-evolution of stress buildup in the Tokyo region adjacent to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki rupture, and its influence on active faults in that region is the primary objective of this NSF-supported project. This project is a collaboration with Japanese scientists who seek improved estimates of seismic hazards in the Tokyo region both currently and for decades to come. This project will provide research training to U.S. students, as well as international research experience, and also seeks to help our Japanese colleagues improve their ability to conduct this type of seismic hazard research. This project seeks to understand the evolution of crustal stresses and associated seismic hazards in the Tokyo region in the years and decades to following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Stress changes will occur due to two primary postseismic processes, afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. The former is associated with aseismic slip along the North America/Pacific plate interface within and below the region of coseismic slip, while the latter involves the relaxation of hot weak mantle beneath the converging plates. Both processes will cause a time-dependent transfer of stress to the seismogenic upper crust. It is our goal to understand this process of stress transfer and how it works to load active faults in the Tokyo region. This will be achieved by developing an observationally constrained finite element model that can accurately calculate stress changes due to afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. Observational constraints will primarily consider seismological data that describes the tectonic geometry and elastic structure of the region, and geodetic constraints that will enable a determination of the rheology (viscous strength) of the region. Most importantly, the model should enable us to separate out the relative contributions of afterslip and viscous relaxation to postseismic geodetic data, which is not only required for an accurate calculation of stress changes, but will provide invaluable insights as to the nature of these two processes that will benefit our general understanding of subduction zone tectonics. It is the unprecedented postseismic GPS coverage within Japan that will enable these insights to be achieved.
2011年3月11日的东北冲9级地震是日本1400多年有记录以来最大的一次地震。地震和随之而来的海啸对日本人民的影响是严重的,从大约20,000人死亡和下落不明,到估计10万亿元人民币(1200亿美元)的经济损失。东北-冲之岛的破裂位于东京以北,这在日本国内引起了强烈的社会兴趣,即他们的首都将会发生什么。具体地说,东北大地震是否可能加速了下一次重大地震的发生,以更直接地影响东京都地区。日本政府最近的研究估计,一场类似1923年7.9级关东大地震的浅层大地震将导致约11,000人死亡,经济损失高达3万亿美元。基于地震科学的最新进展表明:(A)在一个地区缓解应力的地震将在邻近地区形成应力,(B)虽然在地震期间应力迅速变化,但震后过程将导致大地震后数年至数十年的地壳应力重新分布,因此有理由对东京地区地震灾害恶化表示关切。了解2011年东北-冲之交破裂附近东京地区应力积聚的持续时间演变及其对该地区活动断层的影响是这一NSF资助项目的主要目标。该项目是与日本科学家的合作,他们寻求改善对东京地区目前和未来几十年的地震危险的估计。该项目将为美国学生提供研究培训,以及国际研究经验,并寻求帮助我们的日本同事提高进行此类地震危险研究的能力。该项目旨在了解东京地区在东北大地震后数年和数十年间的地壳应力和相关地震灾害的演变。由于两个主要的震后过程,即余滑和粘弹性松弛,将发生应力变化。前者与北美/太平洋板块界面在同震滑移区及其下方沿北美/太平洋板块界面的非地震滑动有关,而后者与板块汇聚下的热-弱地幔的松弛有关。这两个过程都会导致应力随时间转移到孕震的上地壳。我们的目标是了解这一应力传递过程,以及它如何作用于加载东京地区的活动断层。这将通过开发一个受观测约束的有限元模型来实现,该模型可以准确地计算由于余滑和粘弹性松弛引起的应力变化。观测约束将主要考虑描述该区域构造几何和弹性结构的地震学数据,以及能够确定该区域流变性(粘性强度)的大地测量约束。最重要的是,该模型应该使我们能够区分出余滑和粘性松弛对震后大地测量数据的相对贡献,这不仅是准确计算应力变化所必需的,而且将为这两个过程的性质提供宝贵的见解,这将有助于我们对俯冲带构造的总体理解。正是日本史无前例的震后GPS覆盖使这些洞察力得以实现。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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David Okaya其他文献
David Okaya的其他文献
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