Climate Sensitivity during and between Interglacials (ClimSens)

气候敏感性是辐射强迫变化后的温度响应（例如，大气中二氧化碳浓度加倍）。这一参数的数值目前还不为人所知，这限制了对未来（世纪及以后）气候预测的准确性。Clim-Sens项目致力于提高气候敏感性估计的准确性，方法是（1）采用长时间温度和强迫时间序列，（2）采用最先进的统计估计方法。这些时间序列来自气候模型、冰芯和海洋气候档案;它们涵盖了过去80万年。估计工具包括在误差的变量回归结合一个现实的准确性测定的自助rescue方法;一个创新的方法步骤是，明确考虑到时间尺度的不确定性。拟合到时间序列的回归模型导致可能更高精度的新的敏感性估计。ClimSens进一步研究了过去间冰期之间的敏感性如何变化，以深入了解古气候反馈过程的大小。预计结果将是相关的，以提高我们的知识，通过21世纪及以后的当前间冰期的未来气候演变。

Climate sensitivity is the temperature response following a change in radiative forcing (e.g., doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration). The value of this parameter is currently not well known, which limits the accuracy of projections of climate in the future (21st century and beyond). The Clim-Sens project is devoted to increasing the accuracy of climate sensitivity estimation by means of (1) employing long temperature and forcing time series and (2) implementing a state-of-the-art statistical estimation method. The time series come from climate models, ice cores and marine climate archives; they cover the past 800 thousand years. The estimation tool consists in errors-in-variables regression combined with a bootstrap resampling approach for a realistic accuracy determination; an innovative methodical step is that timescale uncertainties are explicitly taken into account. The regression model fitted to the time series leads to new sensitivity estimates of likely higher accuracy. ClimSens further studies how the sensitivity varied between past interglacials to obtain insight into the size of paleoclimate feedback processes. Results are expected to be relevant for enhancing our knowledge about the future climate evolution of the present interglacial through the 21st century and beyond.