Multi-Criteria Disaster Vulnerability Assessment: Critical Infrastructure, Human Behavior, and Public Policy

工程师经常仅根据社区中民用基础设施的物理完整性以及灾害相关破坏导致的结构故障的后续影响来量化灾害脆弱性。然而，居住者对其建筑环境及其灾害脆弱性的了解以及机构应急规划的质量将在衡量脆弱性方面发挥重要作用。此外，安全政策的执行规定了减少风险的措施，无论是建筑物的翻新还是对工作人员的紧急培训，这也将有助于全面量化脆弱性。该项目的目的是开发必要的工具，根据有形基础设施的脆弱性、建筑物居住者的防灾能力以及管理这些领域的安全政策和执行情况，模拟关键基础设施对自然灾害的风险。我们将结合公共卫生、社会科学和工程学科来开发一种基于代理的模型，该模型可以捕获结构的性能以及在地震发生期间和之后立即在这些建筑中的个人行为。我们的计算框架还将模拟当前安全立法的实施，并将用于比较各种关键基础设施系统的脆弱性；我们还将测试未来尚未到位的备灾干预战略和模型指南。该项目制定的评估框架将指导其他系统一级的工作，探索量化社区脆弱性的新方法。这里提出的评估灾害脆弱性的量化框架将作为一种工具，将不同学科的尖端研究和教育结合在一起：灾害基础设施风险评估、卫生工作者的应急准备以及公共卫生法律和政策。将本项目中开发的基于代理的模型纳入可视化工具，以重新设计现有的培训练习，确保了方法的透明度，并将工作广泛传播给其他研究人员和医疗保健界。此外，该项目还将针对从K-12水平到研究生水平的学生的教育和指导：传感器技术和基础设施风险缓解(STIRM)实验室将为K-12学生提供地震工程诊所；PI将在约翰·霍普金斯大学新的实验学习设施“EStudio”教授她的本科课程，该设施旨在促进积极的教学环境；主要调查人员将在彼此的研究生课程中客座讲课，以确保教育未来一代专业人员进行多学科思维；PIs将在新的EERI毕业后实习计划中担任导师，对应届毕业生进行多学科研究方法的教育。

Engineers often quantify disaster vulnerability solely based on the physical integrity of the civil infrastructure in a community and the subsequent impact of structural failures caused by disaster-related damage. However, the knowledge of occupants about their built environment and its vulnerability to disasters as well as the quality of institutional emergency planning will play significant roles in measuring vulnerability. Additionally, safety policy implementation that dictates risk mitigation measures, whether they are retrofits of buildings or emergency training of staff, will also contribute to the overall quantification of vulnerability. The purpose of this project is to develop the tools necessary to model the risk of critical infrastructure to natural hazards in terms of vulnerability of the physical infrastructure, the disaster preparedness of building occupants, and the safety policies and implementation that govern these areas. We will combine public health, social science, and engineering disciplines to develop an agent-based model that captures the performance of structures and the behavior of individuals in those buildings during and immediately following a seismic event. Our computational framework will also simulate the implementation of current safety legislation, and will be used to compare the vulnerability of various critical infrastructure systems; we will also test future preparedness intervention strategies and model guidelines not yet in place. The assessment framework developed in the project will guide other systems-level work in exploring new methods for quantifying community vulnerability. The quantitative framework for assessing disaster vulnerability proposed here will serve as a vehicle to bring together cutting-edge research and education from various disciplines: disaster infrastructure risk assessment, emergency preparedness of health workers, and public health law and policy. The incorporation of the agent-based model developed in this project into a visualization tool to redesign existing training exercises ensures transparency in the methodology as well as broad dissemination of the work to other researchers and the healthcare community. Additionally, this project will also target education and mentoring of students from the K-12 level to the post-graduate level: the Sensor Technology and Infrastructure Risk Mitigation (STIRM) Laboratory will host earthquake-engineering clinics for K-12 students; the PI will teach her undergraduate course in the new experimental learning facility at Johns Hopkins University, the "eStudio," designed to promote an active teaching and learning environment; the principal investigators will guest lecture in each other's graduate courses to ensure the education of a future generation of professionals in multidisciplinary thinking; and the PIs will serve as mentors in the new EERI post-graduation internship program to educate recent graduates in multidisciplinary research methods.