Large Scale Dynamics and Statistics of California Extreme Weather in the Atmosphere and in Global Models

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This project will focus on two types of extreme weather events that affect the California Central Valley, viz extreme hot spells, and cold air outbreaks. Both these extreme weather events is associated with very prominent and highly significant patterns of weather variables in the atmosphere. This project will undertake diagnostic analysis of extreme weather events. The diagnostic tools will also be applied to simulations of historical climate by several climate models to assess how well those models simulate large-scale meteorological patterns and evaluate how well each model captures the dynamics needed to create the large-scale meteorological patterns. Simulations of future climate will be analyzed and recalibrated, based on the performance of each model in simulating historical climate, so as to estimate how the properties of each extreme weather event might change in the future Extreme weather events are of great interest to the agricultural community, to public utilities and their associated regulatory agencies, and to the public in general. Results from this work will be communicated to farmers through the agricultural extension service and various agricultural periodicals. Results will also be shared with the California Energy Commission and with the EnvironMentors chapter, a national program to involve and excite underrepresented youth in environmental studies. Thus the broader impacts of this project are substantial.