Understanding Arctic Surface Climate Simulation Errors

该项目讨论了哪些过程维持了观测到的北极表面天气模式，特别是低层风和海平面气压；哪些过程是造成北极表面气候误差的关键，以及如何在模式模拟中改进这些过程。工作计划描述了对观测和模拟的气候的分析，以确定影响北极海平面气压和风分布的本地(辐射、温度、低层云量和表面特性)和远程(中纬度锋面气旋活动、行星波和地形相关问题)机制，以期确定地面气候反应。将采用一系列模型来确定哪些领域是造成现有分析错误的主要因素。预计模型运行将确定这些错误是如何发展的，并测试模型修改。这项研究预计将通过减少模型的不确定性而造福于气候模型界，并通过增进我们对北极地区气候变化问题及其相关全球影响的了解而造福于更广泛的公众。该项目将资助两名研究生。

This project addresses which processes maintain the observed Arctic surface weather patterns, especially low level wind and sea level pressure; which processes are key to Arctic surface climate error, and how these processes might be improved in model simulations. The work plan describes the analyses of observed and modeled climatologies to determine both local (the distribution of radiation, temperature, low level cloud cover, and surface properties) and remote (middle latitude frontal cyclone activity, planetary waves, and topography-related issues) mechanisms that influence the distribution of Arctic sea-level pressure and winds, with a view to establishing the surface climate response. A sequence of models will be employed to identify which fields are the primary contributors to existing analysis errors. The model runs are expected to identify how these errors develop and to test model modifications. This research is expected to benefit the climate modeling community by reducing model uncertainties, and benefit the wider public by enhancing our knowledge of climate change issues in the Arctic region and their related global implications. Two graduate students will be supported by this project.