Understanding Arctic Surface Climate Simulation Errors

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This project addresses which processes maintain the observed Arctic surface weather patterns, especially low level wind and sea level pressure; which processes are key to Arctic surface climate error, and how these processes might be improved in model simulations. The work plan describes the analyses of observed and modeled climatologies to determine both local (the distribution of radiation, temperature, low level cloud cover, and surface properties) and remote (middle latitude frontal cyclone activity, planetary waves, and topography-related issues) mechanisms that influence the distribution of Arctic sea-level pressure and winds, with a view to establishing the surface climate response. A sequence of models will be employed to identify which fields are the primary contributors to existing analysis errors. The model runs are expected to identify how these errors develop and to test model modifications. This research is expected to benefit the climate modeling community by reducing model uncertainties, and benefit the wider public by enhancing our knowledge of climate change issues in the Arctic region and their related global implications. Two graduate students will be supported by this project.