Collaborative Research: Understanding Dynamic Responses to Hurricane Warnings - Implications for Communication and Research

最近，美国飓风造成的生命和财产损失不断增加，这凸显了开发更有效的方法来警告居民即将到来的风暴的必要性。虽然物理科学家在预测风暴的运动和强度方面取得了很大的进步，但我们对居民如何利用和解释提供给公众的预报产品的范围，以及这些预报如何影响采取保护措施的决定知之甚少。这项研究的目的是通过基于网络的计算机模拟来获得这些知识，该模拟允许居民通过观看假想的天气广播来“经历”假想的风暴事件，并与虚拟的朋友和邻居谈论即将到来的风暴。这项新技术将使研究小组能够回答一些基本问题，如随着飓风威胁的发展，居民如何利用不同的媒体（如电视、网络和口口相传），以及哪种媒体在触发采取保护行动的决定方面最有效。此外，通过改变广播内容和风暴威胁的性质，该研究将能够调查可能损害准备工作的因素，例如反复暴露于“假警报”，或没有实现的风暴预报。有了这些知识，这项研究将有望有助于了解传达警告的最佳方式，从而最大限度地提高公众的准备程度。

Recent increases in losses of lives and property from hurricanes in the United States have underscored the need to develop more effective ways to warn residents of approaching storms. Though physical scientists have made great advances in forecasting the movement and strength of storms, we know much less about how residents utilize and interpret the range of forecasts products provided to the public, and how these forecasts affect decisions to take protective action. The goal of this research is to gain this knowledge using a web-based computer simulation that allows residents to "live through" a hypothetical storm event by watching hypothetical weather broadcasts, and speaking with virtual friends and neighbors about the approaching storm.This new technique will allow the research team to answer such basic questions as how residents make use of different media (such as television, the web, and word-of-mouth) over time as a hurricane threat evolves, and which media are most effective in triggering decisions to take protective action. In addition, by varying the content of broadcasts and the nature of the storm threat, the research will enable investigation of factors that could potentially impair preparedness-such as repeated exposure to "false alarms", or forecasts of storms that do not materialize. Armed with such knowledge, the research will hopefully contribute to an understanding of the best way to communicate warnings so as to maximize public preparedness.