Collaborative Research: Understanding Dynamic Responses to Hurricane Warnings - Implications for Communication and Research

最近，美国飓风造成的生命和财产损失增加，这突显了开发更有效的方法来警告居民暴风雨即将到来的必要性。尽管物理学家在预测风暴的移动和强度方面取得了很大进展，但我们对居民如何利用和解释提供给公众的一系列预报产品，以及这些预报如何影响采取保护行动的决定知之甚少。这项研究的目标是通过基于网络的计算机模拟来获取这些知识，通过观看假想的天气广播，并与虚拟的朋友和邻居谈论即将到来的风暴，让居民“活过”假想的风暴事件。这项新技术将使研究团队能够回答这样的基本问题：随着飓风威胁的演变，居民如何利用不同的媒体(如电视、网络和口碑)，以及哪些媒体在触发采取保护措施的决策方面最有效。此外，通过改变广播的内容和风暴威胁的性质，这项研究将能够调查可能损害准备的因素--例如反复暴露在“虚假警报”中，或预报没有成为现实的风暴。有了这些知识，这项研究有望有助于了解传达警告的最佳方式，从而最大限度地提高公众准备能力。

Recent increases in losses of lives and property from hurricanes in the United States have underscored the need to develop more effective ways to warn residents of approaching storms. Though physical scientists have made great advances in forecasting the movement and strength of storms, we know much less about how residents utilize and interpret the range of forecasts products provided to the public, and how these forecasts affect decisions to take protective action. The goal of this research is to gain this knowledge using a web-based computer simulation that allows residents to "live through" a hypothetical storm event by watching hypothetical weather broadcasts, and speaking with virtual friends and neighbors about the approaching storm.This new technique will allow the research team to answer such basic questions as how residents make use of different media (such as television, the web, and word-of-mouth) over time as a hurricane threat evolves, and which media are most effective in triggering decisions to take protective action. In addition, by varying the content of broadcasts and the nature of the storm threat, the research will enable investigation of factors that could potentially impair preparedness-such as repeated exposure to "false alarms", or forecasts of storms that do not materialize. Armed with such knowledge, the research will hopefully contribute to an understanding of the best way to communicate warnings so as to maximize public preparedness.