Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Electoral Violence in New Democracies: The Institutional Foundations of Peaceful Transitions

本项目考察选举委员会和法庭能否减少新兴民主国家发生选举暴力的风险。程序正义的研究表明，只要程序被认为是公平的，个人就会接受他们认为不公平的结果。该项目假设，只要有称职和独立的选举委员会和法庭使选举合法化，并保证今天的失败者能够在明天的选举中竞争，那些选举失败的人就可能接受结果并避免使用暴力。这些论点在比较案例研究和统计分析中得到了检验。知识价值：本项目有四个重要贡献。首先，本项目以确保自由公正选举的机构（即选举管理机构或选举管理机构）为重点，审查可能对民主至关重要的机构。其次，通过关注选举治理和程序确定性的制度化，该研究为多元社会中众所周知的民主不稳定问题提出了新的解决方案。第三，通过将EMBs视为限制现任权力的机构，本项目挑战了这样一种观点，即民主是精英重新分配财富的可信承诺，以换取大众的沉默。相反，新兴民主国家的选举产生了一个可信的承诺问题，而EMBs可以帮助克服这个问题，从而确保和平选举。最后，这个项目通过解释为什么一些民主过渡会变得暴力而另一些则不会，为内战文学做出了贡献。通过对加纳和肯尼亚的案例研究，以及对1990年至2010年撒哈拉以南非洲所有选举的跨国统计分析，对这一论点进行了评估。更广泛的影响：这项研究将在至少三个方面产生更广泛的影响。首先，通过研究不同类型的选举管理机构及其对人们对选举公平性看法的影响，本研究可以帮助决策者、捐赠组织和非政府组织设计选举管理机构，以改善新民主国家的选举治理，从而减少选举暴力的可能性。其次，这项研究还可以帮助选举观察员更好地了解公民如何评估选举，因此，这项研究的结果可以用来教育未来的选举观察员，当他们评估选举的公平性时，公民认为最重要的是什么。第三，通过收集有关选举管理机构和选举暴力的数据，该项目将使研究选举和选举机构的学者以及主要关注政治暴力的学者受益。

This project examines whether electoral commissions and tribunals can reduce the risk of electoral violence in new democracies. Research in procedural justice shows that individuals will accept outcomes they perceive as unfair as long as the procedure is perceived as fair. The project hypothesizes that those who lose elections are likely to accept the results and refrain from using violence as long as competent and independent election commissions and tribunals exist to legitimize elections and guarantee that today's losers can compete in tomorrow's elections. These arguments are tested in comparative case studies and statistical analyses.Intellectual Merit: This project makes four important contributions. First, by focusing on institutions that secure free and fair elections (i.e., electoral management bodies or EMBs), this project examines institutions that may be critical to democracy. Second, by focusing on electoral governance and the institutionalization of procedural certainty, the research suggests new solutions to well-known problems of democratic instability in plural societies. Third, by examining EMBs as institutions that limit the incumbent's power, this project challenges the idea that democracy is a credible commitment by elites to redistribute wealth in exchange for the masses' quiescence. Rather, elections in new democracies produce a credible commitment problem and that EMBs can help overcome this problem and so ensure peaceful elections. Finally, this project contributes to the civil war literature by explaining why some democratic transitions turn violent while others do not. The argument is assessed through case studies of Ghana and Kenya, as well as a cross-national statistical analysis of all elections in sub-Sahara Africa between 1990 and 2010.Broader Impact: This research will have broader impacts in at least three ways. First, by examining different types of electoral management bodies and their effects on people's perceptions about the fairness of elections, this research can help policymakers, donor organizations and NGOs design electoral management bodies which can improve electoral governance in new democracies, and thus reduce the likelihood of electoral violence. Second, the research can also help election observers better understand how citizens evaluate elections and as such, the results from this research can be used to educate future election observers about what citizens find most important when they evaluate the fairness of an election. Third, by collecting data on both electoral management bodies and electoral violence, this project will benefit scholars who study elections and electoral institutions as well as those who focus mainly on political violence.