Collaborative Research: Mitigating Emergent System Behavior through System Evolvability

该合作项目的研究目标是发现控制复杂工程系统（CES）可演化性的原则，并了解如何使用服务阶段演化来减少面对不可预见的未来需求时的负面紧急行为。在为社会提供基本利益的同时，复杂系统的设计异常具有挑战性，因为它们具有(i)复杂的内部交互，（ii）长开发时间，（iii）与扩展服务窗口相关的生命周期，以及（iv）表现出意想不到的紧急行为。为了应对这些挑战，本研究项目将首先进行实证研究，以了解现有的CES如何在服务中响应紧急需求。这些研究将用于深入了解为什么某些消费电子产品比其他消费电子产品更有效地进化。然后将探索和验证不同的可演化性度量和模型，以指导设计者操纵CES的演化。最后，本项目将探讨如何将有关服务阶段演化的信息集成到价值模型中，以及不同的演化策略如何影响整个系统价值。如果成功，这项工作将开始解决最近的CES研讨会中反复出现的主题，强调控制和利用系统可发展性的必要性。这个项目的结果将显著地促进对系统设计和系统倾向之间的关系的理解，通过识别和编目可以由实践工程师访问的有用原则，通过进化来减轻突发行为。通过探索表征系统可演化性的度量，本研究将促进来自各种设计工具的信息的综合，以描述系统能力并量化各种演化可能性所提供的影响。将这些见解与价值驱动的设计联系起来，将研究可发展性和系统价值之间的关系，同时进一步使用和验证这种设计方法。这项工作的经验教训和贡献将通过出版物、互联网设计营教学模块、与行业支持的互动以及会议来传播。最后，通过在北立大学和杨百翰大学的暑期设计营，学生将获得第一手的系统设计经验，并将不同背景和思维的学生聚集在一起。

The research objective of this collaborative project is to discover the principles governing the evolvability of complex engineered systems (CES) and understand how service-phase evolution can be used to reduce negative emergent behavior in the face of unforeseen future needs. While providing essential benefits to society, complex systems are unusually challenging to design because they have (i) elaborate internal interactions, (ii) long development times, (iii) lifecycles associated with extended service windows, and (iv) exhibit unanticipated emergent behavior. To address these challenges, this research project will begin by conducting empirical studies to understand how existing CES have evolved in-service in response to emergent needs. These studies will be used to draw insights about why certain CES are more effective at evolving than others. Different measures and models of evolvability will be then be explored and validated to guide designers in manipulating the evolution of CES. Finally, this project will explore how information about service-phase evolution can be integrated into a value model, and how different evolution strategies impact overall system value. If successful, this work will begin to address a recurring theme from recent CES workshops highlighting the need to control and capitalize on system evolvability. Results from this project will significantly advance understanding of the relationship between system design and the tendency for systems to mitigate emergent behavior through evolution by identifying and cataloging useful principles that can be accessed by practicing engineers. By exploring metrics to characterize system evolvability, this research will facilitate the synthesis of information from various design tools to describe system capabilities and quantify the impact provided by various evolution possibilities. Linking these insights to value-driven design will study the relationship between evolvability and system value while furthering the use and validation of this design approach. Lessons learned and contributions of this work will be disseminated through publications, internet-available design camp teaching modules, interactions with industry supports, and at conferences. Finally, student involvement through summer design camps at both NCSU and BYU campuses will grant first-hand experience in system design and bring together students of diverse backgrounds and thinking.