WSC- Category 3: Collaborative Research: Water Sustainability under Near-term Climate Change : A cross-regional analysis incorporating socio-ecological feedbacks and adaptations

WSC-类别 3：合作研究：近期气候变化下的水可持续性：纳入社会生态反馈和适应的跨区域分析

• 批准号: 1318140
• 负责人: John Kominoski
• 金额: $ 11.11万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1318140&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Research; Water

1204368/1204396/1204478Sankarasubraman Arumugam/ John Kominoski/ John SaboNorth Carolina State University/University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc./Arizona State UniversityWater resource availability varies across the Sunbelt of the United States with a sharp East-West transition at 105 degrees W. Arid regions west of the 105th Meridian produce less runoff compared to humid regions in the East that produce greater than 40 cm of mean annual runoff. Consequently, reservoirs in the West are over-year systems holding multiple years of inflows, whereas reservoirs in the East are within-year storage systems with the need to refill the system in the beginning of spring. Accordingly, water policies also differ substantially with western states pursuing ("prior appropriation") and the eastern states following ("riparian rights") for allocation. These contrasting strategies also impact freshwater biodiversity with the ratio of non-native to native fish species being nearly 6 times higher in the West compared to the East. In spite of these cross-regional differences, both regions face two common stressors: (a) uncertainty in available freshwater arising from global climate change and (b) increased human demand due to population growth and consumption. Consequently, there is an ever-increasing need for an integrated assessment of freshwater sustainability under these two stressors over the planning horizon (10-30 years). The main objective of this study is to understand and quantify the potential impacts of near-term climate change and population growth on freshwater sustainability - defined here as integrating daily to annual flows required to minimize human vulnerability and maximize ecosystem needs (including native biodiversity) for freshwater - by explicitly incorporating the feedbacks from human-environmental systems on water supply and demand in various target basins spanning Arizona to North Carolina. Using retro-analyses involving AR5 multimodel climate change hindcasts, we will revisit how freshwater sustainability could have been better achieved over the past five decades across the Sunbelt. To couple the hydroclimatic and hydro-ecological system dynamics with the management of freshwater infrastructure systems, a two-level agent-based modeling framework will explicitly simulate adaptive behaviors and feedbacks between policy and consumers. This interdisciplinary project will involve collaboration among three universities, North Carolina State University (NCSU), Arizona State University (ASU), and University of Georgia (UGA). Findings from the AR5 retro-analyses will evaluate and recommend societal options (i.e., supply augmentation vs. demand reduction) for promoting future (2015-2034) freshwater sustainability across the Sunbelt. Cross-regional synthesis of policies and media sources for the targeted basins will identify de-centralized adaptive strategies that have been employed independently and collectively to maintain flows, increase supplies, or reduce demands. Utilizing the near-term hydroclimatic projections, PIs will quantify how current policies on reservoir operations and groundwater extraction could impact the reliability of future water supplies for cities and also alter the key attributes of hydrographs that are critical for maintaining freshwater biodiversity. In doing so, the project will also investigate the degree to which regions have pursued "hard path" (i.e., supply augmentation) vs. "soft path" (i.e., demand reduction) strategies by explicitly modeling potential societal interventions for freshwater sustainability. The educational goal of the project is to conduct an online distributed seminar in which Honors, MS and PhD students from three Universities with interdisciplinary backgrounds will produce a policy-oriented white paper based on the key findings. Based on the white paper, the project team will distribute a suite of podcasts on freshwater sustainability and climate change to middle and high school science programs from the targeted basin states as well as to key water policy institutions across the region. Podcasts, developed data, tools and publications will also be disseminated through the main project portal at NCSU, and additionally through the National Climate Assessment and ASU's Central Arizona - Phoenix LTER websites.

1204368/1204396/1204478SANKARASUBRAMAN ARUMUGAM/JOHN KOMINOSKI/JOHN SABONORTH CAROLINAS州立大学/乔治亚大学研究基金会Inc./Arizona State Water Resources Rousest Inc.向东方的潮湿地区产生超过40厘米的平均年径流。因此，西部的水库是多年的流入量多年的系统，而东部的水库是在春季开始时需要重新填充该系统的一年内存储系统。因此，水政策在追求（“先前拨款”）和后方国家（“河岸权利”）进行分配的西方国家也有很大差异。这些对比策略还影响了淡水生物多样性，与东方相比，西方的非本地鱼类与本地鱼类的比率高出近6倍。尽管存在这些跨区域差异，但两个区域都面临两个共同的压力：（a）全球气候变化引起的可用淡水的不确定性以及（b）由于人口增长和消费而增加人类需求。因此，在计划范围内这两个压力源（10 - 30年）下，对对淡水可持续性的综合评估的需求不断增加。这项研究的主要目的是了解和量化近期气候变化和人口增长对淡水可持续性的潜在影响 - 在此定义为每天将人类脆弱性最小化所需的每日流量整合到每年的流量中，并最大程度地提高了淡水的生态系统需求（包括本地生物多样性） - 通过将反馈纳入人类供应量和需求范围内，并在各种基础上进行反馈。使用涉及AR5多模型气候变化后广播的复古脉络膜，我们将重新审视过去五十年来在Sunbelt中，淡水可持续性如何更好地实现。为了将氢化气候和水力生态系统动力学与淡水基础设施系统的管理相结合，基于两级代理的建模框架将明确模拟政策与消费者之间的适应性行为和反馈。这个跨学科项目将涉及三所大学，北卡罗来纳州立大学（NCSU），亚利桑那州立大学（ASU）和佐治亚大学（UGA）的合作。 AR5复古分析的发现将评估并建议社会选择（即供应增强与减少需求减少），以促进Puture（2015-2034）（2015-2034）在整个阳光下的淡水可持续性。针对目标盆地的政策和媒体来源的跨区域综合将确定已独立和集体使用以维持流动，增加供应或减少需求的偏心自适应策略。利用近期氢化气候预测，PI将量化当前的储层运营和地下水提取政策如何影响城市未来水供应的可靠性，并改变水平图的关键属性，这些属性对于维持淡水生物多样性至关重要。通过这样做，该项目还将调查区域追求“硬道路”（即供应增强）与“软路”（即减少需求）策略的程度，通过对淡水可持续性的潜在社会干预进行显式建模。该项目的教育目标是进行在线分布式研讨会，其中来自三所具有跨学科背景的大学的荣誉，MS和博士学位学生将根据关键发现产生面向政策的白皮书。基于白皮书，项目团队将分发一套有关淡水可持续性和气候变化的播客，从目标盆地国家以及整个地区的主要水政策机构中的中学和高中科学计划分发。播客，开发的数据，工具和出版物也将通过NCSU的主要项目门户进行传播，此外，通过国家气候评估和ASU的亚利桑那州中部 - 凤凰城网站。