WSC- Category 3: Collaborative Research: Water Sustainability under Near-term Climate Change : A cross-regional analysis incorporating socio-ecological feedbacks and adaptations

WSC-类别 3：合作研究：近期气候变化下的水可持续性：纳入社会生态反馈和适应的跨区域分析

• 批准号: 1204396
• 负责人: John Kominoski
• 金额: $ 11.11万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2013-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1204396&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Research; Water

1204368/1204396/1204478Sankarasubraman Arumugam/ John Kominoski/ John SaboNorth Carolina State University/University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc./Arizona State UniversityWater resource availability varies across the Sunbelt of the United States with a sharp East-West transition at 105 degrees W. Arid regions west of the 105th Meridian produce less runoff compared to humid regions in the East that produce greater than 40 cm of mean annual runoff. Consequently, reservoirs in the West are over-year systems holding multiple years of inflows, whereas reservoirs in the East are within-year storage systems with the need to refill the system in the beginning of spring. Accordingly, water policies also differ substantially with western states pursuing ("prior appropriation") and the eastern states following ("riparian rights") for allocation. These contrasting strategies also impact freshwater biodiversity with the ratio of non-native to native fish species being nearly 6 times higher in the West compared to the East. In spite of these cross-regional differences, both regions face two common stressors: (a) uncertainty in available freshwater arising from global climate change and (b) increased human demand due to population growth and consumption. Consequently, there is an ever-increasing need for an integrated assessment of freshwater sustainability under these two stressors over the planning horizon (10-30 years). The main objective of this study is to understand and quantify the potential impacts of near-term climate change and population growth on freshwater sustainability - defined here as integrating daily to annual flows required to minimize human vulnerability and maximize ecosystem needs (including native biodiversity) for freshwater - by explicitly incorporating the feedbacks from human-environmental systems on water supply and demand in various target basins spanning Arizona to North Carolina. Using retro-analyses involving AR5 multimodel climate change hindcasts, we will revisit how freshwater sustainability could have been better achieved over the past five decades across the Sunbelt. To couple the hydroclimatic and hydro-ecological system dynamics with the management of freshwater infrastructure systems, a two-level agent-based modeling framework will explicitly simulate adaptive behaviors and feedbacks between policy and consumers. This interdisciplinary project will involve collaboration among three universities, North Carolina State University (NCSU), Arizona State University (ASU), and University of Georgia (UGA). Findings from the AR5 retro-analyses will evaluate and recommend societal options (i.e., supply augmentation vs. demand reduction) for promoting future (2015-2034) freshwater sustainability across the Sunbelt. Cross-regional synthesis of policies and media sources for the targeted basins will identify de-centralized adaptive strategies that have been employed independently and collectively to maintain flows, increase supplies, or reduce demands. Utilizing the near-term hydroclimatic projections, PIs will quantify how current policies on reservoir operations and groundwater extraction could impact the reliability of future water supplies for cities and also alter the key attributes of hydrographs that are critical for maintaining freshwater biodiversity. In doing so, the project will also investigate the degree to which regions have pursued "hard path" (i.e., supply augmentation) vs. "soft path" (i.e., demand reduction) strategies by explicitly modeling potential societal interventions for freshwater sustainability. The educational goal of the project is to conduct an online distributed seminar in which Honors, MS and PhD students from three Universities with interdisciplinary backgrounds will produce a policy-oriented white paper based on the key findings. Based on the white paper, the project team will distribute a suite of podcasts on freshwater sustainability and climate change to middle and high school science programs from the targeted basin states as well as to key water policy institutions across the region. Podcasts, developed data, tools and publications will also be disseminated through the main project portal at NCSU, and additionally through the National Climate Assessment and ASU's Central Arizona - Phoenix LTER websites.

北卡罗莱纳州立大学/佐治亚大学研究基金会公司/亚利桑那州立大学美国阳光地带的水资源可用性各不相同，在西经105度处有一个急剧的东西过渡。与东部湿润地区相比，东经105度以西的干旱地区产生的径流较少，而东部湿润地区的年平均径流大于40厘米。因此，西部的水库是常年蓄水的系统，而东部的水库是年内蓄水的系统，需要在春季开始时重新蓄水。因此，水政策也有很大的不同，西部各州追求（“优先占有”）和东部各州遵循（“河岸权利”）分配。这些截然不同的策略也影响了淡水生物多样性，在西部，非本地鱼类与本地鱼类的比例几乎是东部的6倍。尽管存在这些跨区域差异，但这两个区域都面临两个共同的压力源：(a)全球气候变化引起的可用淡水的不确定性和(b)由于人口增长和消费导致的人类需求增加。因此，越来越需要在规划期间（10-30年）对这两个压力源下的淡水可持续性进行综合评估。本研究的主要目标是理解和量化近期气候变化和人口增长对淡水可持续性的潜在影响——这里的定义是整合每日到年度的流量，以最大限度地减少人类的脆弱性，最大化生态系统对淡水的需求（包括本地生物多样性）——通过明确地结合人类环境系统对从亚利桑那州到北卡罗来纳州的各种目标流域的水供需的反馈。利用AR5多模式气候变化预测的回溯分析，我们将重新审视过去50年来整个阳光地带如何更好地实现淡水可持续性。为了将水文气候和水文生态系统动力学与淡水基础设施系统的管理结合起来，一个基于主体的两级建模框架将明确模拟政策和消费者之间的自适应行为和反馈。这个跨学科项目将涉及北卡罗莱纳州立大学（NCSU）、亚利桑那州立大学（ASU）和佐治亚大学（UGA）三所大学的合作。AR5回顾分析的结果将评估和推荐社会选择（即增加供应与减少需求），以促进整个阳光地带未来（2015-2034）的淡水可持续性。针对目标流域的政策和媒体来源的跨区域综合将确定独立和集体采用的分散适应战略，以维持流量、增加供应或减少需求。利用近期水文气候预测，pi将量化当前的水库运行和地下水开采政策如何影响未来城市供水的可靠性，并改变对维持淡水生物多样性至关重要的水文曲线的关键属性。在此过程中，该项目还将调查各地区在何种程度上采取了“艰难的道路”（即增加供应）。“软路径”（即减少需求）战略通过明确模拟潜在的社会干预淡水可持续性。该项目的教育目标是举办一个在线分布式研讨会，来自三所大学的跨学科背景的优等生、硕士和博士将根据主要发现撰写一份政策导向的白皮书。在白皮书的基础上，项目团队将向目标流域州的初中和高中科学项目以及整个地区的关键水政策机构分发一套关于淡水可持续性和气候变化的播客。播客、开发的数据、工具和出版物也将通过NCSU的主要项目门户网站传播，此外还将通过国家气候评估和亚利桑那州立大学的亚利桑那中部-凤凰城LTER网站传播。