Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Ethnic Distance and Voter Behavior in Post-Conflict African Democracies

该奖项满足司B，标题五，第。2013年综合和进一步持续拨款法案（P.L.）113-6，2013年3月26日颁布）。该项目调查了种族如何与冲突后社会的投票有关，这是发展政治稳定，促进民主化和推进美国外交政策努力的关键问题。人们普遍认为，选民更愿意支持来自同一种族、民族、宗教或地区团体的候选人。这在非洲是一个特别重要的发现，那里的国家种族多样，民主是新的和薄弱的，选民无法获得有关候选人，政党和民主的重要信息。本研究将为族群政治学开辟一个新的研究议程：族群距离研究。许多研究发现，非洲选民最有可能投票给本族裔的候选人，即他们的“同族裔”。然而，这些研究未能解释种族如何影响那些在竞选中没有同种族候选人的人的投票行为。据估计，平均40%的非洲人口将面临总统选举，他们没有一个同种族的候选人投票。因此，由于对共同种族的关注，我们对种族如何影响这40%的政治行为的理解非常有限。这个项目试图解释种族在决定那些没有同种族候选人的投票偏好方面的作用。知识价值：该项目引入了“族裔接近”的概念，并通过在利比里亚进行的调查对其进行衡量。它调查的可能性，种族相似性是一个更强大的预测选民的行为。这一点很重要，因为它意味着多民族联盟--人们普遍认为这有利于民主（因为它们减少了国内冲突）--最有可能在种族群体足够相似的社会中形成并维持下去。多样性可能不是阻止建立多族裔联盟的关键因素，但可能是各族裔群体之间差异的程度，这是最大的后果。更广泛的影响：如果种族距离对联盟建设很重要，而种族身份是可变的，那么它也可以用于美国的国家建设努力。虽然利比里亚本身对美国的安全利益很重要，因为加强利比里亚的民主可能会给该地区带来更大的稳定，但了解种族如何促进或阻碍利比里亚多种族政治联盟的形成，可以为了解它如何在世界其他地区发挥作用提供基础。在过去10年里，美国为利比里亚内战后的重建投入了大量资金。这项研究的结果可以为有效利用资源提供见解：虽然有必要将资金用于发展基础设施和民主机构，但将一些资源用于和解，其形式是开展公共运动，以不偏不倚的方式强调各群体之间的族裔相似性，而不是笼统地呼吁民族认同，这可能会加强民主机构的运作。更广泛地说，美国及其盟友一直在努力解决困扰伊拉克和阿富汗等国的种族分裂问题。事实证明，这些种族对立往往破坏了在这些国家促进民主的努力。本研究之发现对于重症病患亦有一定的指导意义。

This award satisfies Division B, Title V, Sec. 543 of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act of 2013 (P.L. 113-6, enacted on March 26, 2013). The project investigates how ethnicity is related to voting in post-conflict societies, a critical issue in developing political stability, promoting democratization, and advancing US foreign policy efforts. It is generally understood that voters prefer to support candidates who come from their same racial, ethnic, religious, or regional group. This is a particularly important finding in Africa, where countries are ethnically diverse, democracy is new and weak, and voters lack access to important information about candidates, parties, and democracy. This study will open a new research agenda in ethnic politics: the study of ethnic distance. Numerous studies have found that voters in Africa are most likely to vote for candidates from their own ethnic group, their "co-ethnics". However, these studies fail to explain how ethnicity influences the voting behavior of those who do not have a co-ethnic candidate in the race. By some estimates, on average, 40% of the African population will face presidential elections in which they do not have a co-ethnic candidate for whom to vote. Thus, because of the focus on co-ethnicity, our understanding of how ethnicity influences the political behavior of this 40% is extremely limited. This project seeks to explain the role of ethnicity in determining the voting preferences of those without a co-ethnic candidate. Intellectual Merit: The project introduces the concept of "ethnic proximity", and measures it through a survey conducted in Liberia. It investigates the possibility that ethnic similarity is a more robust predictor of voter behavior. This is important because it implies that multiethnic coalitions, which are widely believed to benefit democracy (because they reduce civil conflict), are most likely to form and be sustained in societies with sufficiently similar ethnic groups. Diversity may not be the key factor that prohibits building multiethnic coalitions, but it could be the degree of difference among the various ethnic groups that is of greatest consequence. Broader Impacts: If ethnic distance matters for coalition building, and ethnic identities are changeable, then it can also be used in US nation-building efforts. While Liberia is important for US security interests in its own right, as strengthening democracy in Liberia will likely bring greater stability to the region, understanding how ethnicity promotes or hinders the formation of multi-ethnic political coalitions in Liberia can provide a basis to understand how it would work in other areas of the world. The United States has invested substantial amounts of money in Liberia's post-civil war reconstruction over the past 10 years. This study's results could provide insight into the effective use of resources: while money spent developing infrastructure and democratic institutions is necessary, devoting some resources to reconciliation, in the form of public campaigns to highlight ethnic similarities across groups in an unbiased manner rather than blanketed national identity appeals, may enhance the functioning of democratic institutions. More broadly, the US and its allies have struggled to address the ethnic divisions that plague countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. These ethnic rivalries have often proven spoilers in efforts to promote democracy in these nations. The findings of this study will be instructive for those critical cases as well.