AGS-PRF: Mechanisms Driving Atmospheric River Variability--An Investigation Using High Resolution Global Climate Model Simulations

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This project will examine heavy precipitation events in the western United States known as atmospheric rivers. The predictability and variability of these events will be characterized in high-resolution global climate model output with reanalysis and observations used to characterize model biases. The goals are to (i) characterize the climatology and natural variability of these storms frequencies and strength in observations, reanalysis, and high-resolution model simulations using various detection algorithms; (ii) analyze the predictability of such events using hindcast simulations and identifying atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which these events develop and are suppressed; and (iii) combine the knowledge gained above to utilize high-resolution global model simulations to examine changes in atmospheric rivers in the future and test the robustness of classifications and predictions made using the present climate. This project has high broader impacts as it will shed insights into extreme precipitation events in western US, specifically California