AGS-PRF: Mechanisms Driving Atmospheric River Variability--An Investigation Using High Resolution Global Climate Model Simulations

AGS-PRF：大气河流变化的驱动机制——利用高分辨率全球气候模型模拟进行的调查

• 批准号: 1331373
• 负责人: Sarah Kapnick
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Kapnick Sarah
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-11-01 至 2015-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331373&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Mechanisms; Driving; Atmospheric

This project will examine heavy precipitation events in the western United States known as atmospheric rivers. The predictability and variability of these events will be characterized in high-resolution global climate model output with reanalysis and observations used to characterize model biases. The goals are to (i) characterize the climatology and natural variability of these storms frequencies and strength in observations, reanalysis, and high-resolution model simulations using various detection algorithms; (ii) analyze the predictability of such events using hindcast simulations and identifying atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which these events develop and are suppressed; and (iii) combine the knowledge gained above to utilize high-resolution global model simulations to examine changes in atmospheric rivers in the future and test the robustness of classifications and predictions made using the present climate. This project has high broader impacts as it will shed insights into extreme precipitation events in western US, specifically California

该项目将研究美国西部被称为大气河流的强降水事件。这些事件的可预测性和可变性将在高分辨率全球气候模型输出中得到表征，再分析和观测将用于表征模型偏差。其目标是：㈠在观测、再分析和使用各种探测算法的高分辨率模式模拟中，确定这些风暴频率和强度的气候学和自然变化特征; ㈡使用后报模拟分析这些事件的可预测性，并确定这些事件发展和被抑制的大气和海洋条件;和（iii）结合联合收割机以上获得的知识，利用高分辨率全球模式模拟来研究未来大气河流的变化，并测试利用目前气候进行的分类和预测的可靠性。该项目具有更广泛的影响，因为它将深入了解美国西部，特别是加州的极端降水事件