AGS-PRF: Improving Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment by Incorporating Storm Size Physics

这个博士后奖学金提供资金，以加强目前的热带气旋（TC）风险评估方法，将基于物理的TC大小信息纳入现有的风险建模框架。 人们对热带气旋的大小缺乏基本的了解，这导致无法完全量化登陆热带气旋造成损害的风险。 该项目的总体目标是展示对观测到的TC大小分布以及单个风暴在成因和生命周期中的大小的熟练的基于物理学的解释，以便纳入TC风险评估框架。 该项目将利用观测、高分辨率天气预报模式输出、理想化建模研究和理论相结合的方法来阐明观测到的TC大小分布的物理基础。 然后将利用这些结果制定风暴大小物理学，并将其纳入全面的TC风险评估。 实现这些目标的进展情况将通过对观测和天气预报模型中的大小预报员的技能进行统计核实来评估。 该项目更广泛的社会影响将是通过更好地评估和潜在地减轻短期（如应急管理）和长期（如基础设施规划）的损害风险。 该项目还将加强科学家和风险管理人员之间的合作努力，并支持早期职业科学家。

This postdoctoral fellowship award provides funding to enhance current tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment methodology by incorporating physics-based TC size information into existing risk modeling frameworks. There is a lack of fundamental understanding of TC size and that leads to an inability to fully quantify the risk of damage from landfalling TCs. The overarching goal of the project will be to demonstrate a skillful physics-based explanation of the observed distribution of TC size, as well as of the size of an individual storm at genesis and during its lifecycle, for integration into a TC risk assessment framework. The project will make use of a combination of observations, high-resolution weather forecast model output, idealized modeling studies, and theory to elucidate the physics underlying the observed distribution of TC size. The results will then be used to develop and incorporate storm size physics into comprehensive TC risk assessments. Progress towards these objectives will be assessed by statistical verification of the skill of the size predictors in observations and weather forecast models. The broader societal impacts of the project will be through better assessment and potentially mitigation of damage risk in both the short (e.g. emergency management) and long-term (e.g. infrastructure planning). The project will also enhance collaborative efforts between scientists and risk managers and support an early-career scientist.