AGS-PRF: Improving Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment by Incorporating Storm Size Physics

AGS-PRF：通过结合风暴大小物理学改进热带气旋风险评估

• 批准号: 1331362
• 负责人: Daniel Chavas
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Chavas Daniel R
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-11-01 至 2015-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331362&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Improving; Tropical; Cyclone

This postdoctoral fellowship award provides funding to enhance current tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment methodology by incorporating physics-based TC size information into existing risk modeling frameworks. There is a lack of fundamental understanding of TC size and that leads to an inability to fully quantify the risk of damage from landfalling TCs. The overarching goal of the project will be to demonstrate a skillful physics-based explanation of the observed distribution of TC size, as well as of the size of an individual storm at genesis and during its lifecycle, for integration into a TC risk assessment framework. The project will make use of a combination of observations, high-resolution weather forecast model output, idealized modeling studies, and theory to elucidate the physics underlying the observed distribution of TC size. The results will then be used to develop and incorporate storm size physics into comprehensive TC risk assessments. Progress towards these objectives will be assessed by statistical verification of the skill of the size predictors in observations and weather forecast models. The broader societal impacts of the project will be through better assessment and potentially mitigation of damage risk in both the short (e.g. emergency management) and long-term (e.g. infrastructure planning). The project will also enhance collaborative efforts between scientists and risk managers and support an early-career scientist.

该博士后奖学金提供资金，通过将基于物理的热带气旋 (TC) 大小信息纳入现有的风险建模框架，增强当前的热带气旋 (TC) 风险评估方法。 由于缺乏对热带气旋规模的基本了解，导致无法完全量化登陆的热带气旋造成的损害风险。 该项目的首要目标是对观测到的 TC 大小分布以及单个风暴在发生时及其生命周期中的大小进行基于物理学的巧妙解释，以便集成到 TC 风险评估框架中。 该项目将综合利用观测、高分辨率天气预报模型输出、理想化模型研究和理论来阐明观测到的 TC 大小分布背后的物理原理。 然后，结果将用于开发风暴大小物理学并将其纳入综合的热带气旋风险评估中。 将通过对观测和天气预报模型中规模预测者的技能进行统计验证来评估实现这些目标的进展。 该项目更广泛的社会影响将通过更好地评估和潜在地减轻短期（例如应急管理）和长期（例如基础设施规划）的损害风险来实现。 该项目还将加强科学家和风险管理者之间的合作，并支持早期职业科学家。