STTR Phase I: Physics-based models of wind variability

该小型企业技术转移研究(STTR)第一阶段项目旨在开发风速变化的量化模型，以帮助设计具有高透风率的可靠、低碳电网系统。所有丰富的可再生资源都是自然可变的，这给它们的整合带来了挑战。电网。虽然这种变化性挑战现在开始与进一步降低发电硬件成本的重要性相抗衡，但现有的变化性模型存在许多缺陷，限制了它们的准确性和灵活性。该项目旨在以大气科学和湍流物理为基础，开发和验证具有高度普遍性和普遍适用性的新模型。拟议的模型将提供对风变异性的时间和地理方面的新的概念性见解，以及基于罕见和罕见事件(包括风旱)的风险评估和可靠性估计的卓越性能。这些模型将使设计(在不过度设计的情况下)成为一个可靠的电网，不仅包括对其电力系统的改变，还包括对作为电力输送系统重要组成部分的政策、监管和金融系统的改变。该项目将在多个部门实现更广泛的影响/商业潜力。该项目将为参与电力系统转型的广泛的工程和金融部门--S基础设施和组织--提供有利的工具，使其迈向可持续和可再生的未来。这些工具的应用将降低风电并网的成本，从而加快电网改造，加速电力部门温室气体排放的减少。电网规划者和运营商将受益于商业电网软件包中更易于使用的工程和模拟模块。在金融部门，模型工具将能够准确估计风能风险，允许新的风险管理市场工具和合同结构。对变化性的基本概念性理解以及拟议模型提供的可操作的量化指标将使新企业和企业能够利用智能电网领域的新兴机会形成资本。

This Small Business Technology Transfer Research (STTR) Phase I project aims to develop quantitative models of wind variability to aid the design of reliable, low-carbon electric grid systems with high wind penetration. All abundant renewable resources are naturally variable, creating a challenge for their integra¬tion onto an ?always on? electric grid. While this variability challenge is now beginning to rival the importance of further reductions in the costs of generation hardware, existing variability models suffer numerous shortcomings that limit their accuracy and flexibility. This STTR project aims to develop and validate new models with a high degree of generality and universal applicability based on atmospheric sciences and the physics of turbulent flows. The proposed models will provide new conceptual insights into the temporal and geographic aspects of wind variability along with superior performance for risk-assessment and reliability estimation based on rare and infrequent events including wind droughts. These models will enable design (without overdesign) of a reliable grid, including not only changes to its electrical system, but also changes to the policy, regulatory, and financial systems that are essential parts of the electricity delivery system.The broader impact/commercial potential of this project will be realized across multiple sectors. The project will provide enabling tools to broad engineering and financial constituencies involved in transforming the electricity system?s infrastructure and organization as it moves towards a sustainable and renewable future. Application of these tools will lower the costs of wind integration, thereby speeding grid transformation and hastening the reduction of electric-sector greenhouse gas emissions. Grid planners and operators will benefit from easier-to-use engineering and simulation modules in commercial grid software packages. In the financial sectors, the model tools will enable accurate estimation of wind energy risks, allowing new risk-management market instruments and contract structures. The fundamental conceptual understanding of variability along with actionable quantitative metrics made possible by the proposed models will enable the formation of new ventures and enterprises capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the smart-grid space.