A Workshop to Develop a Conceptual Model of the Future High Arcitc Marine Ecosystem

海冰覆盖面的减少和海洋酸化正在改变北冰洋的生态系统，并促进该区域的重大经济和文化变化。这些变化的重要性在美国和国际上都得到了强调，在美国，北冰洋被确定为国家海洋政策的九个优先目标之一，在国际上，北极理事会正在北极基于生态系统的管理、防止和应对漏油以及搜索和救援方面进行合作。从这些论坛开始，人们对协调研究北极海洋生态系统以及它在面对全球气候变化、近海能源勘探和开发以及日益酸化的情况下可能发生的变化产生了兴趣。这次研讨会将促进大约20位综合思想家之间的讨论，以建立北极海洋生态系统的概念模型，并提出关于该系统在未来几十年可能如何变化的假设。本研讨会将开始汇总系统的概述，以便更有效地规划几个联邦机构的个别工作，并相互补充，以促进我们对整个系统及其对不断变化的条件的可能反应的了解。设计北极海洋生态系统研究计划的一个重要步骤是开发一个共同的概念模型，说明北极未来可能是什么样子，主要信息需求是什么，以及如何实施旨在解决这些需求的协调研究计划。预计此次研讨会的更广泛影响包括，研究界有机会讨论有助于更好地理解当代北极的物理、生物、未来几十年，人类生态系统可能会发生变化，以及如何指导人类活动以减轻人类和自然对生态系统的影响，促进人类适应。

Diminishing sea ice cover and ocean acidification are altering the Arctic Ocean ecosystem and contributing to substantial economic and cultural changes in the region. The significance of those changes has been highlighted in the United States where the Arctic Ocean was identified as one of the nine priority objectives in the National Ocean Policy and internationally by the Arctic Council which is working cooperatively in the Arctic on ecosystem based management, oil spill prevention and response, and search and rescue. From those fora interest had grown for coordinating studies of the arctic marine ecosystem and how it is likely to change in the face of global climate change, offshore energy exploration and development, and increasing acidification. This workshop will facilitate discussion among approximately 20 synthetic thinkers to develop a conceptual model of the arctic marine ecosystem, and to develop hypotheses about how that system is likely to change in the coming decades. This workshop will begin to assemble an overview of the system such that individual efforts of several Federal agencies can be more efficiently planned and complement one another to further our understanding of the overall system and its likely responses to changing conditions.An important step in the design of a research program in arctic marine ecosystems is the development of a common conceptual model of what the Arctic may look like in the future, what the main information needs will be, and how a coordinated research program aimed at addressing these needs could be implemented.The broader impacts expected from this workshop include an opportunity for the research community to discuss ideas that contribute to a better understanding of how contemporary arctic physical, biological, and human ecosystems may change over the next few decades, and of how anthropogenic activities can be directed to mitigate human and natural impacts on the ecosystem and facilitate human adaptations.