A Workshop to Develop a Conceptual Model of the Future High Arcitc Marine Ecosystem

海冰覆盖面积的减少和海洋酸化正在改变北冰洋生态系统，并促使该地区发生重大的经济和文化变化。这些变化的重要性在美国得到了强调，在国家海洋政策中，北冰洋被确定为九个优先目标之一；在国际上，北极理事会正在北极开展基于生态系统的管理、石油泄漏预防和应对以及搜索和救援方面的合作。在这些论坛上，人们对协调研究北极海洋生态系统及其在全球气候变化、近海能源勘探和开发以及日益酸化的情况下可能发生的变化越来越感兴趣。这次研讨会将促进大约20位综合思想家之间的讨论，以发展北极海洋生态系统的概念模型，并就该系统在未来几十年可能如何变化提出假设。本次研讨会将开始对该系统进行概述，以便更有效地规划几个联邦机构的个别工作，并相互补充，以进一步了解整个系统及其对不断变化的条件的可能反应。设计北极海洋生态系统研究项目的一个重要步骤是开发一个共同的概念模型，该模型包括北极未来可能是什么样子，主要的信息需求是什么，以及如何实施旨在解决这些需求的协调研究项目。本次研讨会预计将产生更广泛的影响，包括为研究界提供一个机会，讨论有助于更好地理解当代北极物理、生物和人类生态系统在未来几十年可能发生的变化，以及如何指导人类活动以减轻人类和自然对生态系统的影响并促进人类适应的想法。

Diminishing sea ice cover and ocean acidification are altering the Arctic Ocean ecosystem and contributing to substantial economic and cultural changes in the region. The significance of those changes has been highlighted in the United States where the Arctic Ocean was identified as one of the nine priority objectives in the National Ocean Policy and internationally by the Arctic Council which is working cooperatively in the Arctic on ecosystem based management, oil spill prevention and response, and search and rescue. From those fora interest had grown for coordinating studies of the arctic marine ecosystem and how it is likely to change in the face of global climate change, offshore energy exploration and development, and increasing acidification. This workshop will facilitate discussion among approximately 20 synthetic thinkers to develop a conceptual model of the arctic marine ecosystem, and to develop hypotheses about how that system is likely to change in the coming decades. This workshop will begin to assemble an overview of the system such that individual efforts of several Federal agencies can be more efficiently planned and complement one another to further our understanding of the overall system and its likely responses to changing conditions.An important step in the design of a research program in arctic marine ecosystems is the development of a common conceptual model of what the Arctic may look like in the future, what the main information needs will be, and how a coordinated research program aimed at addressing these needs could be implemented.The broader impacts expected from this workshop include an opportunity for the research community to discuss ideas that contribute to a better understanding of how contemporary arctic physical, biological, and human ecosystems may change over the next few decades, and of how anthropogenic activities can be directed to mitigate human and natural impacts on the ecosystem and facilitate human adaptations.