EAGER: A Control-Theoretic Approach for Designing Robust Complex Engineered Systems

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The objective of this EArly-concept Grants for Exploratory Research (EAGER) Program award is to perform research into a control-theoretic approach to robust design, appropriate for complex engineered system design. A robust design is a design possessing relatively invariant performance in the presence of various uncertainties. Current approaches to robust design are suitable primarily for designing established consumer products or updating existing system designs; these approaches are not appropriate for the design of large complex systems, such as spacecraft or smart grids, where primary uncertainties, such as environmental, budgeting, or new technology performance, are resolved in time. The research approach taken in this work treats the design process as a stochastic control problem in which the goal is to best align the system design for the current conditions and information available in a given time period. The design process is represented using a state-space model which is solved using Kalman recursion. The research tasks include formulating a motivating aerospace design problem which illustrates the challenges of complex system design, collecting environmental data to enable solution of the state-space model, and finally deriving and solving the governing stochastic control equations.If successful, this research will provide the basis for a general theory of complex system robust design. Currently, there is a lack of theory, and subsequent methodology, for the robust design of complex engineered systems, leading to frequent cost and schedule overruns and potentially undesirable performance. The approach taken in this research will be unique in that it will transform the design process from a static process of optimizing the design in a defined design phase to a dynamic process of controlling the design throughout its lifecycle. The proposed research will benefit not only the academic community, but also designers of complex engineered systems working in government agencies and large corporations.