CAREER: Measuring the thermal tolerances of individuals, populations, and species and predicting plant species' responses to climate change in the tropical Andes

职业：测量热带安第斯山脉个体、种群和物种的热耐受性并预测植物物种对气候变化的反应

• 批准号: 1350125
• 负责人: Kenneth Feeley
• 金额: $ 80万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1350125&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Measuring; thermal; tolerances; individuals

One of the most basic questions in ecology is: Where does each species occur? And following on that: What environmental factors determine where a particular species occurs? Despite the seeming simplicity of these questions, they remain unanswered for the vast majority of species. This lack of knowledge is especially troubling given the implications for understanding how species will respond to climate change through either shifts in where they occur or through physiological adaptations. This study will address these and other questions through a series of experimental and observational studies conducted in the Andean mountains of Peru, where many species are unusually vulnerable to small changes in temperature and rainfall. More specifically, the project will measure altitudinal ranges and thermal tolerances of nearly two dozen cloud forest tree species. The investigators will also determine the extent to which small populations of each species are tightly adapted to particular elevations ("local adaptation") and each species' ability to change its thermal tolerance ("plasticity"). Data will be incorporated into models designed to predict where species currently occur and where they might start to occur as climates change. This project is one of the first to systematically test several key assumptions critical to the assessment how climate change will impact where species are able to live. It will be the first-ever study to simultaneously measure the thermal tolerances of individuals, populations, and species of tropical trees. The results will greatly expand our understanding of the complex factors determining where species occur, and will strengthen our ability to predict species responses to future climate change.The research will be integrated with an extensive set of educational, training, and outreach programs in collaboration with established domestic and international environmental education organizations. Outreach programs are designed to help increase the participation of US minorities and international students in the biological sciences, and to broaden public awareness of the potential impacts of climate change on tropical forests around the world.

生态学中最基本的问题之一是：每个物种出现在哪里？接下来：哪些环境因素决定了特定物种的出现地点？ 尽管这些问题看似简单，但对于绝大多数物种来说，它们仍然没有答案。考虑到物种如何通过发生地点的变化或生理适应来应对气候变化的影响，这种知识的缺乏尤其令人不安。 这项研究将通过在秘鲁安第斯山脉进行的一系列实验和观察研究来解决这些问题和其他问题，那里的许多物种异常容易受到温度和降雨量微小变化的影响。 更具体地说，该项目将测量近两打云林树种的海拔范围和耐热性。研究人员还将确定每个物种的小种群对特定海拔的严格适应程度（“局部适应”）以及每个物种改变其耐热性的能力（“可塑性”）。数据将被纳入模型中，该模型旨在预测物种当前出现的位置以及随着气候变化它们可能开始出现的位置。 该项目是第一个系统测试对评估气候变化将如何影响物种能够生存的地区至关重要的几个关键假设的项目之一。这将是有史以来第一项同时测量热带树木个体、种群和物种耐热性的研究。研究结果将极大地扩展我们对决定物种发生地点的复杂因素的理解，并将增强我们预测物种对未来气候变化反应的能力。该研究将与国内外知名环境教育组织合作，与广泛的教育、培训和推广计划相结合。外展计划旨在帮助增加美国少数族裔和国际学生对生物科学的参与，并扩大公众对气候变化对世界各地热带森林潜在影响的认识。