WSC-Category 1: Decision Processes, Climate Change, and Water Resources in the Agricultural Midwest

现代农业覆盖了世界约40%的土地，养活了日益增长的人口，并对地球的水系产生了不可否认的影响。农业影响清洁水的供应，以支持人类活动和生态系统。气候变化是直接影响农业实践、进而影响水质和水量的另一个复杂因素。这项研究将量化农业土地管理者的决策如何受到地方治理组织(如流域管理当局)的影响，并将模拟这些组织对水质和水量的影响。研究小组将构建数值模型，以检查未来气候、土地管理和土地利用情景的后果。将在网上平台和决策论坛上向重点小组提供示范成果。为了为未来的规划提供信息，研究小组将制定关于社会经济驱动因素和基于模型的后果的叙述，以及让治理组织、倡导团体和普通公众参与决策的战略。该项目将通过爱荷华州可持续社区倡议将教学和研究结合起来。公众将通过决策论坛和众包水文数据的方式参与进来。这项研究的结果将通过与流域管理当局的伙伴关系并在多个论坛上直接与州立法者分享结果，为地方决策提供信息。将创建一个基于网络的界面，供利益相关者与数据和模型交互，这是一项可以扩展到其他地区的实验。这项研究的总体科学目标是，在气候、土地管理做法和地方治理发生变化的情况下，预测中西部农业的未来情景。中心假设认为，水资源治理结构和经济关切取代了气候、洪水、干旱或水质的变化，影响了土地管理做法和由此产生的环境结果。具体的研究计划包括量化气候变化下的土地管理活动如何影响人类和环境成果，评估流域治理在农业土地管理者决策过程中的影响，以及确定该区域未来应对土地管理和气候变化的情景。

Covering approximately 40% of the world's landscape, modern agriculture feeds a growing human population and has undeniable impact on Earth's water system. Agriculture affects the supply of clean water to support human activities and ecosystems. A changing climate is a further compounding factor that directly impacts agricultural practices and consequently water quality and quantity. This research will quantify how decision-making by agricultural land managers is influenced by local governance organizations, such as Watershed Management Authorities, and will model the impact of these organizations on water quality and quantity. The research team will construct numerical models to examine the consequences of future scenarios of climate, land management, and land use. Model results will be made accessible to focus groups on a web-based platform, and decision-making forums. To inform future planning, the research team will develop narratives about the social-economic drivers and model-based consequence, strategies for involving governance organizations, advocacy groups, and the general public in policy decisions. This project will integrate teaching and research through the Iowa Initiative for Sustainable Communities. The public will be engaged through decision-making forums and by crowdsourcing hydrologic data. Outcomes from this research will inform local decision making through partnerships with Watershed Management Authorities and directly sharing results with state legislators in multiple forums. A web-based interface will be created for stakeholders to interact with data and models, which is an experiment that can be extended to other regions.The overall scientific objective of this research is to project future scenarios for the agricultural Midwest given changes in climate, land management practices, and local governance. The central hypothesis poses that water resource governance structure and economic concerns supersede changes in climate, flooding, drought, or water quality in influencing land management practices and resultant environmental outcomes. The specific research plan includes quantifying how land management activities affect human and environmental outcomes under a changing climate, assessing the influence of watershed governance in the decision-making process by agricultural land managers, and identifying future scenarios for the region in response to changes in land management and climate.