WSC-Category 1: Decision Processes, Climate Change, and Water Resources in the Agricultural Midwest

现代农业覆盖了世界上大约40%的土地，养活了不断增长的人口，对地球的水系统产生了不可否认的影响。农业影响到支持人类活动和生态系统的清洁水的供应。不断变化的气候是一个进一步的复合因素，直接影响到农业做法，从而影响到水的质量和数量。这项研究将量化农业土地管理者的决策如何受到当地治理组织（如流域管理局）的影响，并将模拟这些组织对水质和水量的影响。该研究小组将构建数值模型，以研究未来气候，土地管理和土地利用情景的后果。将在一个网络平台和决策论坛上向重点小组提供示范结果。为告知未来的规划，研究团队将制定有关社会经济驱动因素和基于模型的后果的叙述，让治理组织，倡导团体和公众参与政策决策的战略。该项目将通过爱荷华州可持续社区倡议整合教学和研究。公众将通过决策论坛和众包水文数据参与其中。这项研究的成果将通过与流域管理当局的合作伙伴关系为当地决策提供信息，并在多个论坛上与州立法者直接分享结果。一个基于网络的接口将创建利益相关者与数据和模型，这是一个实验，可以扩展到其他regions.Overall的科学目标，这项研究是项目的农业中西部的未来情景的变化，气候，土地管理实践和地方治理。 核心假设提出，水资源治理结构和经济问题取代了气候、洪水、干旱或水质的变化，影响土地管理做法和由此产生的环境后果。具体的研究计划包括量化土地管理活动如何影响气候变化下的人类和环境结果，评估流域治理在农业土地管理者决策过程中的影响，并确定该地区应对土地管理和气候变化的未来情景。

Covering approximately 40% of the world's landscape, modern agriculture feeds a growing human population and has undeniable impact on Earth's water system. Agriculture affects the supply of clean water to support human activities and ecosystems. A changing climate is a further compounding factor that directly impacts agricultural practices and consequently water quality and quantity. This research will quantify how decision-making by agricultural land managers is influenced by local governance organizations, such as Watershed Management Authorities, and will model the impact of these organizations on water quality and quantity. The research team will construct numerical models to examine the consequences of future scenarios of climate, land management, and land use. Model results will be made accessible to focus groups on a web-based platform, and decision-making forums. To inform future planning, the research team will develop narratives about the social-economic drivers and model-based consequence, strategies for involving governance organizations, advocacy groups, and the general public in policy decisions. This project will integrate teaching and research through the Iowa Initiative for Sustainable Communities. The public will be engaged through decision-making forums and by crowdsourcing hydrologic data. Outcomes from this research will inform local decision making through partnerships with Watershed Management Authorities and directly sharing results with state legislators in multiple forums. A web-based interface will be created for stakeholders to interact with data and models, which is an experiment that can be extended to other regions.The overall scientific objective of this research is to project future scenarios for the agricultural Midwest given changes in climate, land management practices, and local governance. The central hypothesis poses that water resource governance structure and economic concerns supersede changes in climate, flooding, drought, or water quality in influencing land management practices and resultant environmental outcomes. The specific research plan includes quantifying how land management activities affect human and environmental outcomes under a changing climate, assessing the influence of watershed governance in the decision-making process by agricultural land managers, and identifying future scenarios for the region in response to changes in land management and climate.