WSC-Category 1: Decision Processes, Climate Change, and Water Resources in the Agricultural Midwest

现代农业覆盖了大约40%的世界景观，养活了不断增长的人口，并对地球的水系统产生了不可否认的影响。农业影响着清洁水的供应，以支持人类活动和生态系统。气候变化是一个进一步的复杂因素，直接影响农业实践，从而影响水质和水量。本研究将量化农业用地管理者的决策如何受到地方治理组织（如流域管理当局）的影响，并将模拟这些组织对水质和水量的影响。研究小组将构建数值模型来检验未来气候、土地管理和土地利用情景的后果。模型结果将在基于网络的平台和决策论坛上提供给焦点小组。为了为未来的规划提供信息，研究小组将开发关于社会经济驱动因素和基于模型的后果的叙述，以及让治理组织、倡导团体和公众参与政策决策的策略。该项目将通过爱荷华州可持续社区倡议整合教学和研究。公众将通过决策论坛和众包水文数据的方式参与进来。这项研究的成果将通过与流域管理当局的伙伴关系，并在多个论坛上直接与州立法者分享结果，为当地决策提供信息。将创建一个基于网络的界面，供利益相关者与数据和模型进行交互，这是一个可以扩展到其他地区的实验。本研究的总体科学目标是在考虑气候、土地管理实践和地方治理变化的情况下，预测中西部农业地区未来的情景。中心假设提出，水资源治理结构和经济问题在影响土地管理实践和由此产生的环境结果方面，取代了气候、洪水、干旱或水质的变化。具体的研究计划包括量化气候变化下土地管理活动如何影响人类和环境结果，评估流域治理在农业用地管理者决策过程中的影响，并确定该地区应对土地管理和气候变化的未来情景。

Covering approximately 40% of the world's landscape, modern agriculture feeds a growing human population and has undeniable impact on Earth's water system. Agriculture affects the supply of clean water to support human activities and ecosystems. A changing climate is a further compounding factor that directly impacts agricultural practices and consequently water quality and quantity. This research will quantify how decision-making by agricultural land managers is influenced by local governance organizations, such as Watershed Management Authorities, and will model the impact of these organizations on water quality and quantity. The research team will construct numerical models to examine the consequences of future scenarios of climate, land management, and land use. Model results will be made accessible to focus groups on a web-based platform, and decision-making forums. To inform future planning, the research team will develop narratives about the social-economic drivers and model-based consequence, strategies for involving governance organizations, advocacy groups, and the general public in policy decisions. This project will integrate teaching and research through the Iowa Initiative for Sustainable Communities. The public will be engaged through decision-making forums and by crowdsourcing hydrologic data. Outcomes from this research will inform local decision making through partnerships with Watershed Management Authorities and directly sharing results with state legislators in multiple forums. A web-based interface will be created for stakeholders to interact with data and models, which is an experiment that can be extended to other regions.The overall scientific objective of this research is to project future scenarios for the agricultural Midwest given changes in climate, land management practices, and local governance. The central hypothesis poses that water resource governance structure and economic concerns supersede changes in climate, flooding, drought, or water quality in influencing land management practices and resultant environmental outcomes. The specific research plan includes quantifying how land management activities affect human and environmental outcomes under a changing climate, assessing the influence of watershed governance in the decision-making process by agricultural land managers, and identifying future scenarios for the region in response to changes in land management and climate.