Collaborative Research: International Trade, Firms and Welfare under Policy Uncertainty

合作研究：政策不确定性下的国际贸易、企业与福利

• 批准号: 1360780
• 负责人: Nuno Limao
• 金额: $ 25.82万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1360780&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; International; Trade; Firms

Firms that buy and sell products across international borders often must make important decisions without full information about future government policies. For example, an exporting firm may have to decide whether or not to invest in a new production technology even though the firm is uncertain about future trade policies that will affect its customers. This award funds a research project that seeks to measure the effects of uncertainty about trade policy on firms' investment and export decisions. The data will allow the team to measure the effects of such uncertainty during two recent events: the Great Recession and the recent global integration of the Chinese economy with the rest of the world.The project builds a basic framework for modeling and estimating the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment and export decisions. The framework incorporates several key factors: (i) general equilibrium effects of policy reform; (ii) a set of investments that is broad enough to incorporate innovation and input choice; (iii) the interaction with pure economic uncertainty and (iv) endogenous trade policy uncertainty. The model is estimated with firm microdata.

跨国买卖产品的公司往往必须在没有关于未来政府政策的完整信息的情况下做出重要决定。例如，一家出口公司可能不得不决定是否投资于一项新的生产技术，即使该公司不确定未来将影响其客户的贸易政策。该奖项资助了一个研究项目，该项目旨在衡量贸易政策的不确定性对企业投资和出口决策的影响。这些数据将使该团队能够衡量最近两个事件中这种不确定性的影响：大衰退和最近中国经济与世界其他地区的全球一体化。该项目建立了一个基本框架，用于建模和估计贸易政策不确定性对投资和出口决策的影响。该框架包含几个关键因素：(1)政策改革的一般均衡效应；(2)一套足够广泛的投资，足以纳入创新和投入选择；(3)与纯粹的经济不确定性的相互作用；(4)内生的贸易政策不确定性。该模型是用固定的微观数据进行估计的。