Advancing Arctic Paleoecology: An Integrative Approach to Understanding Species Refugia and Population Dynamics in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate Change

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TITLE: Advancing Arctic Paleoecology: An Integrative Approach to Understanding Species Refugia and Population Dynamics in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate ChangeThis project will use an innovative approach to investigate glacial refugia and population dynamics associated with vegetation responses to late-Quaternary climate change in Alaska and adjacent Canada. The research will test the following hypotheses based on data from two target species (Picea glauca and Alnus viridis): (1) Multiple Last Glacial Maximum refugia existed for each species in isolated areas nested in a complex topography, and the locations of these refugia differed between species; (2) Some of the refugial populations expanded to form modern species ranges whereas others remained largely restricted to their Last Glacial Maximum locations; (3) Within and between species, refugial populations spread at different rates and in different directions during the early postglacial period; and (4) Glacial refugia existed in areas with low climate velocity, and the directions and rates of postglacial colonization were determined by the spatial patterns of climate velocity. Graduate and undergraduate students will receive transdisciplinary training and gain a broad perspective to global change study. This project will provide intellectual focus, financial resources, and mentorship for the career development of three young investigators. Research results will be disseminated broadly to the scientific community, the public, and land managers. The centerpiece of the outreach activities is a workshop to educate high school teachers on Arctic climate and ecological changes. Through these teachers, a large group of midwestern students will be exposed to the excitement of Arctic research. Materials from the workshop will be disseminated online to a broad audience. The approach will integrate genomic analysis, species distribution modeling that involves remote-sensing techniques, climate-velocity mapping, and existing fossil data in a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework. The proposed research will uncover cryptic glacial refugia in the study region, elucidate the landscape and climate contexts for refugial populations, and offer new insights into population dynamics in late-Quaternary vegetation development. The project promises to provide spatially explicit, population-level details of species range shifts in relation to climate change that cannot be reliably acquired using conventional paleoecological analyses. Equally important, this project may serve as a model demonstrating the utility of a crosscutting approach to investigate the impacts of climate change on plant population processes in the paleorecord. The novel approach that will be developed through this project presents an opportunity to advance Arctic paleoecology and foster next generation research and training in the discipline.