Doctoral Dissertation Research: Institutional Design as Mediator in the Political and Economic Effects of Supranational Court Decisions

国际法院能促进国家间的经济合作吗？国际法院不能强迫遵守其裁决，但有时实际上改变了政府的行为。这个项目假设两个因素影响一个国家是否遵守国际法院的裁决。首先，国内政治分歧阻碍了对法院裁决的遵守，并通过加大政策变革的难度，延长了纠纷。其次，国际法院的设计——即其惩罚违规行为的能力——可以减轻这种影响。这一分析结果将有助于学者和政策制定者理解美国如何在贸易合作中有效地促进其经济利益。鉴于经济争端对美国的重要性，理解国际法院何时能够（或不能）解决这些争端是关键。世界贸易组织争端解决机构（wto Dispute Settlement Body）和欧洲法院（European Court of Justice）的诉讼对这一观点进行了检验。依从性和因果关系难以估计；该项目将通过开发估算因果效应的新模型做出实质性的理论贡献。该项目将创建一个新的数据集，并对两种合规措施进行统计分析。首先，该项目将利用数百种商品的贸易模式和估算因果关系的新统计模型，研究法院裁决的经济影响。其次，该项目将利用来自新闻档案的证据来衡量法院裁决的政治影响，这些证据表明政府是否在不利裁决后制定立法和政策变化。此外，该项目将有助于培养本科生的社会科学方法。

Can international courts promote economic cooperation among countries? International courts cannot compel compliance with their rulings yet sometimes actually change the behavior of governments. This project posits that two factors influence whether a country complies with the ruling of an international court. First, domestic political divisions hinder compliance with court rulings and prolong disputes by making policy change more difficult. Second, the design of an international court---namely its ability to punish non-compliance---can mitigate this effect. The results of this analysis will help both scholars and policy-makers to understand how the United States can effectively promote its economic interests in trade cooperation. It is key to understand when international courts can (and cannot) resolve economic disputes given their significance to the United States. The argument is tested by examining litigation at the World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Body and the European Court of Justice. Compliance and causation have been difficult to estimate; this project will make a substantial theoretical contribution by developing a new model for estimating causal effects. This project will create a novel dataset and statistical analysis of two measures of compliance. First, the project will examine the economic impact of court rulings using trade patterns for hundreds of commodities and a new statistical model for estimating causal effects. Second, the project will measure the political impact of court rulings using evidence from news archives about whether governments enact legislative and policy changes after adverse rulings. In addition, this project will contribute to training an undergraduate student in methods in the social sciences.