Doctoral Dissertation Research: Institutional Design as Mediator in the Political and Economic Effects of Supranational Court Decisions

国际法院能促进国家间的经济合作吗？国际法庭不能强迫遵守其裁决，但有时实际上却改变了政府的行为。该项目假定有两个因素影响一个国家是否遵守国际法院的裁决。首先，国内政治分歧阻碍了对法院裁决的遵守，并使政策变革更加困难，从而延长了争端。第二，国际法院的设计-即其惩罚不遵守行为的能力-可以减轻这种影响。本文的分析结果将有助于学者和政策制定者理解美国如何在贸易合作中有效地促进其经济利益。鉴于经济纠纷对美国的重要性，理解国际法院何时能够（以及何时不能）解决经济纠纷是关键。 这一论点通过审查世界贸易组织争端解决机构和欧洲法院的诉讼进行了检验。遵约和因果关系一直难以估计;本项目将通过开发一个新的模型来估计因果效应，从而作出重大的理论贡献。 该项目将创建一个新的数据集，并对两种合规措施进行统计分析。首先，该项目将利用数百种商品的贸易模式和估计因果影响的新统计模型来研究法院裁决的经济影响。第二，该项目将利用新闻档案中的证据来衡量法院裁决的政治影响，这些证据涉及政府是否在不利裁决后颁布立法和政策变化。此外，该项目将有助于在社会科学方法方面培训一名本科生。

Can international courts promote economic cooperation among countries? International courts cannot compel compliance with their rulings yet sometimes actually change the behavior of governments. This project posits that two factors influence whether a country complies with the ruling of an international court. First, domestic political divisions hinder compliance with court rulings and prolong disputes by making policy change more difficult. Second, the design of an international court---namely its ability to punish non-compliance---can mitigate this effect. The results of this analysis will help both scholars and policy-makers to understand how the United States can effectively promote its economic interests in trade cooperation. It is key to understand when international courts can (and cannot) resolve economic disputes given their significance to the United States. The argument is tested by examining litigation at the World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Body and the European Court of Justice. Compliance and causation have been difficult to estimate; this project will make a substantial theoretical contribution by developing a new model for estimating causal effects. This project will create a novel dataset and statistical analysis of two measures of compliance. First, the project will examine the economic impact of court rulings using trade patterns for hundreds of commodities and a new statistical model for estimating causal effects. Second, the project will measure the political impact of court rulings using evidence from news archives about whether governments enact legislative and policy changes after adverse rulings. In addition, this project will contribute to training an undergraduate student in methods in the social sciences.