Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Explaining Post-Election Violence in Africa

政治学博士论文研究：解释非洲的选举后暴力

• 批准号: 1423782
• 负责人: Gretchen Bauer
• 金额: $ 1.79万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-01 至 2015-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1423782&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

This project seeks to provide an explanatory framework for understanding post-election violence (PEV) in Africa. Not only has PEV received scant theoretical and empirical treatment in the political violence and internal conflict literatures, electoral violence is consistently recurring, happening at a relatively constant rate for the past two decades even as war is on the decline. While the scant literature on electoral violence in Africa (primarily single-case studies) has shed light on the dynamics involved in particular contexts, still missing are: a systematic explanation for the occurrence of PEV across Africa, why PEV occurs in certain contexts and not in others, and a theoretically grounded general account of PEV on the continent. This project aims to provide these missing aspects.Intellectual Merit: Theoretically, this research will provide an ideal-typical model that explains PEV in Africa to be subsequently deployed in the analysis of individual cases. Empirically, using a multi-method research design, it will provide aggregate quantitative analysis of PEV in Africa as well as in-depth case studies of three cases - two with and one without PEV. These are recent presidential elections in Ghana (2012), Nigeria (2011) and Cote d'Ivoire (2010). The case studies involve field research using semi-structured expert/elite interviews, process tracing, and discourse analysis. This research will enhance security studies by delineating the mechanisms and processes involved in PEV with policy implications for mitigating post-election violence in Africa and other newly democratizing states.Broader Impacts: PEV has a destabilizing effect, results in loss of lives and property, and at its most extreme, leads to civil war. The gap in the literature identified above will be filled by focusing on the following questions. What accounts for the incidence of PEV? What are the mechanisms and processes involved? How can the variance in the intensity of violence seen in PEV be explained? Why does PEV degenerate into civil war? Successfully answering these questions will provide a comprehensive understanding of PEV that is crucial to coming up with effective measures for preventing and resolving PEV, with broader implications for international security, the practice and policymaking on conflict management and peacebuilding, not just in Africa but also in other newly democratizing societies. Since the U.S. as a preeminent global power is enmeshed in international security it also has national security implications as the U.S. may intervene in cases of PEV that degenerate into civil war.

该项目旨在为理解非洲选举后暴力（PEV）提供一个解释框架。 PEV 不仅在政治暴力和内部冲突文献中缺乏理论和实证研究，而且选举暴力不断发生，在过去二十年中以相对稳定的速度发生，尽管战争正在减少。虽然关于非洲选举暴力的文献（主要是单案例研究）很少阐明特定背景下的动态，但仍然缺少：对整个非洲 PEV 发生的系统解释，为什么 PEV 在某些背景下发生而不是在其他背景下发生，以及对非洲大陆 PEV 的有理论依据的一般说明。该项目旨在提供这些缺失的方面。 智力价值：理论上，本研究将提供一个理想的典型模型，解释非洲的 PEV，随后将其部署到个案分析中。从经验上讲，它将采用多方法研究设计，对非洲的 PEV 进行总体定量分析，并对三个案例（两个有 PEV，一个没有 PEV）进行深入的案例研究。这些是加纳（2012 年）、尼日利亚（2011 年）和科特迪瓦（2010 年）最近举行的总统选举。案例研究涉及使用半结构化专家/精英访谈、过程追踪和话语分析的实地研究。这项研究将通过描述 PEV 所涉及的机制和过程来加强安全研究，并对减轻非洲和其他新民主化国家的选举后暴力产生政策影响。 更广泛的影响：PEV 具有破坏稳定的作用，导致生命和财产损失，最极端的情况下，会导致内战。上述文献中的空白将通过关注以下问题来填补。 PEV 发病率的原因是什么？涉及哪些机制和过程？如何解释 PEV 中暴力强度的差异？为什么PEV会沦为内战？成功回答这些问题将提供对PEV的全面理解，这对于制定预防和解决PEV的有效措施至关重要，对国际安全、冲突管理和建设和平的实践和决策产生更广泛的影响，不仅在非洲，而且在其他新兴民主化社会。由于美国作为一个卓越的全球大国，深陷国际安全之中，因此它也对国家安全产生影响，因为美国可能会干预可能演变成内战的 PEV 案件。