Exchange Rates When Financial Markets Are Imperfect

我们知道，金融市场在决定不同国家货币之间的汇率方面发挥着重要作用。 该奖项资助研究开发金融市场如何影响汇率的新模型。 在真实的世界中，金融市场并不总是符合完全竞争的框架。 金融市场不完善的一个主要原因是金融家承担风险的能力有限。 研究人员将建立和分析一个全球资本流动模型，其中包括作为国家之间资本流动中介的全球金融家。 研究小组将根据这个模型进行预测，然后根据数据对预测进行测试。 他们还将探讨政策影响，特别是金融市场功能失调时期的政策。该项目提供了一个完整的一般均衡模型，在不完善的金融市场存在的汇率。 该团队从两阶段两国模型中汇率金融决定的基本理论开始，其中资本流动由金融家中介。 汇率是由资本流动和金融机构承受货币风险的能力共同决定的。 然后，他们将这一框架扩展到一个更丰富的模型，将不完善资本市场中的风险承担和金融中介等金融力量与传统的生产、进口和出口的真实的经济分析相结合。

We know that financial markets play an important role in determining exchange rates between different national currencies. This award funds research to develop a new model of how financial markets affect exchange rates. In the real world, financial markets do not always fit into the framework of perfect competition. One major reason why financial markets are imperfect is that financiers have a limited ability to bear risks. The researchers will build and analyze a model of global capital flows that includes global financiers as the intermediaries for capital flows between countries. The research team will develop predictions from this model and then test the predictions against data. They will also explore policy implications, especially policies for periods of dysfunctional financial markets.The project provides a full general equilibrium model of exchange rates in the presence of imperfect financial markets. The team starts with a basic theory of exchange rate financial determination in a two-period two-country model where capital flows are intermediated by financiers. Exchange rates are jointly determined by capital flows and financiers' capacity to bear currency risk. They then expand this framework to a richer model that combines financial forces such as risk taking and financial intermediation in imperfect capital markets with the traditional real economy analysis of production, import and export.