AGS-PRF: The Response of African Monsoon Variability to Elevated CO2 and Implications for Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

AGS-PRF：非洲季风变率对二氧化碳升高的响应以及对未来大西洋热带气旋活动的影响

• 批准号: 1433343
• 负责人: Walter Hannah
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Hannah Walter M
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-04-01 至 2017-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1433343&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Response; African; Monsoon

This project will provide new insights into the long-standing problem of understanding future tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The results will provide valuable information for future planning of resource management in water sensitive regions of the African Sahel and infrastructure of coastal communities affected by Atlantic TCs. The primary goal of this project is to explore how the dynamics of African Easterly Waves (AEW) respond to a climate forcing of doubled atmospheric CO2 and determine the implications for future Atlantic TC activity. This will be achieved through a suite of simulations with a coupled and super-parameterized global climate model that uses embedded cloud resolving models to reproduce a realistic interaction between convection and large-scale processes. Additional sensitivity experiments will be conducted to isolate the slow and fast responses of the climate system, and examine how they affect AEWs. The analysis will also identify how future AEWs will affect Atlantic TC activity through consideration of the marsupial paradigm and remote influences on the Atlantic TC genesis potential.

该项目将为了解未来热带气旋（TC）活动的长期问题提供新的见解。 研究结果将为非洲萨赫勒水敏感地区的资源管理和受大西洋热带气旋影响的沿海社区的基础设施的未来规划提供宝贵的信息。该项目的主要目标是探索非洲东风波（AEW）的动态如何响应大气CO2加倍的气候强迫，并确定对未来大西洋TC活动的影响。这将通过一套具有耦合和超参数化全球气候模型的模拟来实现，该模型使用嵌入式云解析模型来再现对流和大尺度过程之间的真实相互作用。将进行额外的敏感性实验，以隔离气候系统的缓慢和快速反应，并研究它们如何影响AEW。分析还将确定未来的AEW将如何影响大西洋TC活动，通过考虑有袋类动物的范例和远程影响大西洋TC成因潜力。