Collaborative Research: Blending Ecology and Evolution using Emerging Technologies to Determine Species Distributions with a Non-native Pathogen in a Changing Climate

考虑到气候变化和入侵物种的综合影响，以及科学尚未完全了解生态和进化过程如何在大范围内相互作用的事实，预测地球上植物的未来分布是一项紧迫而艰巨的挑战。西南白松（SWP）是一种从亚利桑那州北部到墨西哥中部自然生长的树木，是这个项目的重点。了解其未来取决于了解分子水平上的生物过程，包括基因的运动，对疾病和干旱的适应，以及其他可遗传的变化，在不断变化的环境中相互作用，相互作用支配其整体成功。但除此之外，SWP的可持续性受到一种名为白松水疱锈病的非本地树木疾病的威胁。该项目将开发工具来帮助预测和管理SWP的未来，包括基因组分析、将来自不同环境的幼苗一起种植的普通花园试验、抗病筛选、测量耐旱性的工程和技术创新，以及可以整合景观生态学和基因组学的计算机建模。该方法还将为预测更普遍适用的复杂系统行为提供一个原型。该项目的结果将有助于保护SWP及其所在的生态系统。在北美西部，包括与SWP重叠的迅速扩大的地区，白松水疱锈病导致了广泛的树木衰退和死亡。很有可能，气候变化太快，SWP无法适应，导致树木大面积死亡和潜在的灭绝。为了帮助实现其目标，该项目还将涉及一些教育和推广活动，包括在亚利桑那州的Flagstaff植物园和俄勒冈州Cottage Grove的美国林务局Dorena遗传资源中心的展览和真正的普通花园种植。将培养一批博士后学者、研究生和本科生，参与基因组学、树木抗病测试、景观生态学、建模、工程、遥感和空间分析等跨学科科学研究。将以英文和西班牙文编制一个外联网站和内容，向包括土地管理人员在内的公众提供结果。博士后研究人员将合作为墨西哥的学生举办一个研讨会，作为他们培训的一部分。还将为在西南部举行的会议制定讲习班，其中一个将是墨西哥和美国林业人员之间的重大跨界会议。简而言之，该项目将加强跨境研究、森林保护方面的管理工作，以及我们对基因如何塑造地球生命的理解。

Predicting future distributions of plants on Earth is an urgent and daunting challenge, given the combined effects of climate change and invasive species, along with the fact that science does not fully understand how ecological and evolutionary processes interact across large areas. Southwestern white pine (SWP), a tree that occurs naturally from northern Arizona through central Mexico, is the focus of this project. Understanding its future depends on understanding biological processes at the molecular level, including the movement of genes, adaptations to disease and drought, and other heritable changes, interact in a changing environment interact to govern its overall success. But in addition, sustainability of SWP is threatened by a non-native tree disease called white pine blister rust. This project will develop tools to help forecast and manage the future of SWP, including genomic analyses, common garden trials where seedlings originating from different environments are planted together, screening for disease resistance, engineering and technology innovation to measure drought tolerance, and computer modeling that can integrate landscape ecology and genomics. The approach will also provide a prototype for forecasting complex system behavior that is more generally applicable.The results of this project will contribute to the conservation of SWP and the ecosystems in which it occurs. White pine blister rust causes widespread tree decline and mortality in western North America, including the rapidly expanding area where it overlaps with SWP. It is quite possible that the climate will change too rapidly for SWP to adapt, causing widespread tree death and potential extinction. To help reach its goals, this project will also involve a number of educational and outreach activities, including exhibits and real common garden plantings at Flagstaff Arboretum in Arizona and the U.S. Forest Service Dorena Genetic Resource Center in Cottage Grove, Oregon. A number of postdoctoral scholars and graduate and undergraduate students will be trained and participate in interdisciplinary science that bridges genomics, tree disease resistance testing, landscape ecology, modeling, engineering, remote sensing, and spatial analysis. An outreach website and content will be developed in English and Spanish to provide results to the public, including land managers. Postdoctoral researchers will collaborate on a workshop for students in Mexico as part of their training. Workshops will also be developed for conferences in the Southwest, one of which will be a major cross-border meeting between Mexican and U.S. foresters. In short, this project will strengthen cross-border research, management efforts in forest conservation, and our understanding of how genetics shape life on Earth.