Collaborative Research: Blending Ecology and Evolution using Emerging Technologies to Determine Species Distributions with a Non-native Pathogen in a Changing Climate

考虑到气候变化和入侵物种的综合影响，以及科学没有完全理解生态和进化过程如何在大范围内相互作用的事实，预测地球上未来植物的分布是一项紧迫而艰巨的挑战。西南白松(SWP)是一种从亚利桑那州北部到墨西哥中部自然生长的树，是这个项目的重点。了解其未来取决于在分子水平上了解生物过程，包括基因的运动、对疾病和干旱的适应以及其他可遗传的变化，在不断变化的环境中相互作用，相互作用，以控制其总体成功。但此外，SWP的可持续性还受到一种名为白松水泡锈病的非本地树木病害的威胁。该项目将开发有助于预测和管理SWP未来的工具，包括基因组分析、来自不同环境的苗木一起种植的常见花园试验、抗病筛选、衡量抗旱性的工程和技术创新，以及可以整合景观生态学和基因组学的计算机建模。该方法还将为复杂系统行为的预测提供一个更具普遍适用性的原型。该项目的结果将有助于保护SWP及其所在的生态系统。白松疱锈病在北美西部造成广泛的树木衰退和死亡，包括它与SWP重叠的迅速扩大的地区。很有可能气候变化太快，西南太平洋无法适应，导致大范围的树木死亡和潜在的灭绝。为了帮助实现其目标，该项目还将包括一些教育和外展活动，包括在亚利桑那州的弗拉格斯塔夫植物园和俄勒冈州科蒂奇格罗夫的美国林务局多琳娜遗传资源中心举行的展览和真正的普通花园种植。一批博士后学者以及研究生和本科生将接受培训，并参与跨学科科学，这些科学联系着基因组学、树木抗病测试、景观生态学、建模、工程学、遥感和空间分析。将用英文和西班牙文开发一个外联网站和内容，向包括土地管理人员在内的公众提供成果。博士后研究人员将合作为墨西哥的学生举办研讨会，作为他们培训的一部分。还将为西南地区的会议开发研讨会，其中之一将是墨西哥和美国林业工作者之间的一次重要的跨境会议。简而言之，这个项目将加强跨境研究，加强森林保护方面的管理努力，并加强我们对遗传学如何塑造地球生命的理解。

Predicting future distributions of plants on Earth is an urgent and daunting challenge, given the combined effects of climate change and invasive species, along with the fact that science does not fully understand how ecological and evolutionary processes interact across large areas. Southwestern white pine (SWP), a tree that occurs naturally from northern Arizona through central Mexico, is the focus of this project. Understanding its future depends on understanding biological processes at the molecular level, including the movement of genes, adaptations to disease and drought, and other heritable changes, interact in a changing environment interact to govern its overall success. But in addition, sustainability of SWP is threatened by a non-native tree disease called white pine blister rust. This project will develop tools to help forecast and manage the future of SWP, including genomic analyses, common garden trials where seedlings originating from different environments are planted together, screening for disease resistance, engineering and technology innovation to measure drought tolerance, and computer modeling that can integrate landscape ecology and genomics. The approach will also provide a prototype for forecasting complex system behavior that is more generally applicable.The results of this project will contribute to the conservation of SWP and the ecosystems in which it occurs. White pine blister rust causes widespread tree decline and mortality in western North America, including the rapidly expanding area where it overlaps with SWP. It is quite possible that the climate will change too rapidly for SWP to adapt, causing widespread tree death and potential extinction. To help reach its goals, this project will also involve a number of educational and outreach activities, including exhibits and real common garden plantings at Flagstaff Arboretum in Arizona and the U.S. Forest Service Dorena Genetic Resource Center in Cottage Grove, Oregon. A number of postdoctoral scholars and graduate and undergraduate students will be trained and participate in interdisciplinary science that bridges genomics, tree disease resistance testing, landscape ecology, modeling, engineering, remote sensing, and spatial analysis. An outreach website and content will be developed in English and Spanish to provide results to the public, including land managers. Postdoctoral researchers will collaborate on a workshop for students in Mexico as part of their training. Workshops will also be developed for conferences in the Southwest, one of which will be a major cross-border meeting between Mexican and U.S. foresters. In short, this project will strengthen cross-border research, management efforts in forest conservation, and our understanding of how genetics shape life on Earth.