Tropospheric Influences on Stratospheric Low-frequency Variability

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This project will contribute to improved predictions of future variations of climate. This will allow society to prepare better for natural variations and anthropogenic changes of future climate. The project will also support the training of two graduate students, and the results from this research will be incorporated into graduate level teaching. Finally, this project will provide support for local, national, and international outreach activities on climate changeIt is now well established that conditions in the stratosphere influence weather and climate in the troposphere. The stratospheric polar vortex and variations in its strength play a key role for this influence. The polar vortex is a westerly wind system that develops during polar night over the Arctic stratosphere. Polar vortex variations are related to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSW), but there may be other non-SSW related causes as well. This project will contribute to new and improved insight into the dynamical coupling between stratosphere and troposphere, the mechanisms involved in it, and how to simulate it with models. The project will also contribute to improved understanding of deficencies present in climate models and the impact this has on future predictions of the global climate. Potentially, this will improve the ability to make decadal predictions, and it may have implications for the determination and attribution of decadal trends. It may also help to obtain a more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence rates of SSWs, make more realistic predictions of the recovery of ozone, and increase the certainty of climate change projections.