CAREER: RecovUS - An Agent Based Model of Collective Post Disaster Housing Recovery

职业：RecovUS - 基于代理的集体灾后住房恢复模型

• 批准号: 1454650
• 负责人: Ali Nejat
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Texas Tech University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-02-01 至 2021-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1454650&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; RecovUS; Agent; Based; Model

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) Program grant will study post-disaster housing recovery, using the micro-level of households' reconstruction decisions. It examines how those decisions are affected by a confluence of quantifiable internal and external control variables and propagated to influence community recovery. Anticipated exponential increases in future extreme events coupled with the growing population in disaster-prone regions has created an urgent need for better understanding of the process of disaster recovery and more effective strategies to enhance it. While many studies have focused on assessing the economic impacts of disasters or estimating its losses on a macro-level, very few, if any, have focused on modeling the collective actions taken by households which is deemed to be the key to community-wide recovery. The results from this research will have a broad impact, as they can be instrumental to the members of recovery assistance framework in prioritizing and integrating policies to enhance post-disaster recovery. The multidisciplinary nature of this research and its diversified pedagogy together with its embedded social interaction protocols will allow for a more effective research, teaching and a broader involvement of underrepresented groups as well as multiple stakeholders in related research. This research is aimed at contributing fundamental knowledge on the collective nature of households' community-wide recovery. This research will develop a GIS-enabled agent-based behavioral model of collective post-disaster housing recovery by capturing the micro-level dynamics of households' behavior within a broader socioeconomic context of their community. Both internal and external control variables will be examined. Internal control variables include households' demographics, social networks, experience, socio-economic, psychosocial factors, and disaster exposure. External control variables refer to activities that can influence households' recovery decisions and include the activities of members of the recovery assistance framework aimed at restoring economy and lifeline infrastructure and providing financial incentives along with any housing recovery activities by neighbors creating spatiotemporal effects. The project will integrate agent-based modeling, GIS, and game theory to help decipher the impact of households' interactions on the collective recovery of an affected community. This bottom-up approach will allow for simulation of interactions among households to mimic real events. These simulations will enable policyholders to assess the efficacy of their recovery policies through the developed model. The behavioral model will be modular, scalable, and can be easily extended to any type of disaster.

该教师早期职业发展（CAREER）计划赠款将研究灾后住房恢复，使用家庭重建决策的微观层面。它研究了这些决定如何受到可量化的内部和外部控制变量的影响，并传播到影响社区恢复。预计未来极端事件将呈指数级增加，加上易受灾害地区人口不断增加，因此迫切需要更好地了解灾后恢复进程，并制定更有效的战略来加强这一进程。重点是模拟家庭采取的集体行动，这被认为是整个社区复苏的关键。这项研究的结果将产生广泛的影响，因为它们有助于恢复援助框架的成员确定政策的优先次序和整合政策，以加强灾后恢复。这项研究的多学科性质及其多样化的教学方法以及嵌入式社会互动协议将使研究，教学和代表性不足的群体以及多个利益攸关方更广泛地参与相关研究。这项研究的目的是提供关于家庭在整个社区恢复的集体性质的基本知识。本研究将开发一个基于GIS的行为模型的集体灾后住房恢复捕捉家庭的行为在更广泛的社会经济背景下的微观层面的动态。将检查内部和外部控制变量。内部控制变量包括家庭的人口统计学、社交网络、经验、社会经济、心理社会因素和灾害暴露。外部控制变量是指能够影响家庭恢复决策的活动，包括恢复援助框架成员旨在恢复经济和生命线基础设施的活动，以及沿着邻居创造时空效应的任何住房恢复活动提供财政激励。该项目将整合基于代理的建模、地理信息系统和博弈论，以帮助破解家庭互动对受影响社区集体恢复的影响。这种自下而上的方法将允许模拟住户之间的互动，以模仿真实的事件。这些模拟将使保单持有人能够通过开发的模型评估其追偿政策的有效性。行为模型将是模块化的，可扩展的，可以很容易地扩展到任何类型的灾难。