Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Influence of Statistical Forecasting and Sustainability in Urban Transportation Planning

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Civil engineers and planners are frequently challenged by a range of social, cultural, and environmental issues in developing efficient urban transportation systems. And gathering reliable aggregates of statistical data is particularly challenged under circumstances of rapid urbanization. This project, which trains a graduate student in conducting rigorous, empirically-grounded scientific fieldwork, asks how planners balance the needs for environmental and social sustainability in transportation networks with the demands of a growing urban population. The results will be useful to urban planners tasked with the responsibility of organizing and overseeing transportation systems.Cheryl Deutsch, under the supervision of Dr. Keith Murphy of the University of California, Irvine, will explore the ways in which statistical forecasts influence planning for new public transit systems. She proposes to do this by studying on-going planning for a Bus Rapid Transit network in Delhi, India, which preliminary research suggests is an ideal site, as increasing urbanization and motorization (dependence on private cars) in Indian cities are representative of challenges faced by planners in developing countries around the world. Transportation planning depends on demographic and economic data to forecast future travel, assess multiple design and fare pricing scenarios, and build infrastructure accordingly. These forecasts are complicated in Indian cities by the rapid pace of urbanization and the challenges of collecting reliable data. Urban infrastructure also raises concerns of social and economic equity, as well as rights to the city. In this study, the researcher will use her dual training as an anthropologist and transportation planner to help practicing transportation planners better understand the cultural assumptions built into their statistical models and decision-making processes. Data collection strategies include the use of conventional ethnographic methods such as participant observation within city planning departments and among those managing urban transportation infrastructures, as well as interviews with transportation planners and policymakers, and stratified range of other urban stakeholders in these transportation networks.