Collaborative Research: Multi-scale Modeling of Public Perceptions of Heat Wave Risk

极端高温事件目前是美国与天气相关的主要死亡原因，并对包括食品、水、能源和基础设施在内的重要社会系统产生了许多影响。至关重要的是要了解广大公众和弱势群体如何认识极端高温的风险，他们如何决定采取行动减轻这些风险，以及他们以前的经验如何影响未来的应对措施。人们可以采取行动减少极端高温的健康风险，包括使用风扇和空调，适当补水，避免过度劳累，但他们必须首先意识到风险和适当的缓解行为。该研究项目将确定与公众对极端高温风险认知相关的心理、社会、文化和地理因素，以高分辨率绘制美国各地的这些风险认知地图，并分析极端高温事件的脆弱性如何与公众风险认知相对应。研究结果将使应急管理人员和政策制定者能够准确地确定防范工作、风险沟通战略和其他资源的目标，以保护弱势群体免受伤害。人们对影响热浪风险感知的因素知之甚少，尽管这种感知被认为是人们如何应对环境危害的关键决定因素。为了研究影响公众对热浪风险感知和反应的因素和背景，研究人员将在美国暖季（5月至9月）期间进行一项具有全国代表性的调查。这些数据将用于创建一个空间明确的统计模型，以确定与热浪风险感知相关的因素，包括个人对热浪的经历、当地气候、土地覆盖和个人、社区、社区和社区的社会经济变量。以及区域尺度。对其他危险的研究表明，最近的个人经历可能与年龄和性别等个人层面的因素一起，在风险感知方面发挥主要作用。环境因素，如相对于城市热岛的位置，可能会放大风险感知。统计模型的结果将用于在县和人口普查区一级创建高分辨率的国家风险认知地图，随后将通过独立调查验证模型预测。

Extreme heat events are currently the leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S. and have numerous impacts on important social systems including food, water, energy and infrastructure. It is vital to understand how both the public at large and vulnerable populations perceive the risks of extreme heat, how they decide to take action to mitigate these risks, and how their prior experiences shape future responses. People can take action to reduce the health risks of extreme heat, including the use of fans and air conditioning, proper hydration, and avoiding overexertion, but they must first be aware of the risks and appropriate mitigation behaviors. This research project will identify the psychological, social, cultural, and geographic factors that are associated with public perceptions of extreme heat risks, map these risk perceptions at high resolution across the United States, and analyze how vulnerability to extreme heat events corresponds with public risk perceptions. The results will enable emergency managers and policymakers to precisely target preparedness efforts, risk communication strategies, and other resources to protect vulnerable populations from harm.Little is known about the factors that influence risk perceptions of heat waves, even though such perceptions are known to be a key determinant of how people respond to environmental hazards. To investigate the factors and context that shape public risk perceptions and responses to heat waves, the researchers will conduct a nationally representative survey over the duration of the warm season (May-September) in the U.S. The data will be used to create a spatially explicit statistical model to identify factors related to heat wave risk perceptions, including personal experience with heat waves, local climate, land cover, and socioeconomic variables at the individual, neighborhood, and regional scales. Research on other hazards suggests that recent personal experience is likely to play a major role in risk perception, along with individual-level factors, such as age and gender. Contextual factors, such as location relative to urban heat islands, may amplify risk perceptions. Results from the statistical model will be applied to create a high-resolution national map of risk perceptions at the county and census tract levels, and model projections will subsequently be validated by independent surveys.