Collaborative Research: SHINE: Data-constrained Simulations of Coronal Mass Ejection Initiation and Propagation

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This project addresses coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which are violent expulsions of plasma from the Sun that contribute to space weather. It is vital to understand how these eruptions happen and how they propagate towards Earth in order to accurately predict their behavior. The current fleet of solar and space observatories provides unprecedented temporal and spatial coverage of the surface magnetic field, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray coronal structures. In this study, data-constrained simulations of CME initiation and propagation will be performed starting from realistic initial conditions for the magnetic field and plasma of an active region that contains a flux rope on the verge of eruption. These simulations will provide a unique opportunity to investigate the processes behind the eruption and early development of CMEs. The project has the following science objectives: 1) Develop models of CME initiation that are highly constrained by observations in order to study the early development phases of CMEs; 2) Constrain CME properties near the Sun (kinetics, morphology, shock and compression region parameters) based on the flux rope properties and the ambient coronal field, and 3) Reproduce the observed three-part and two-front structure of CMEs and their in situ properties using data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. Data-constrained non-linear force-free field (NLFFF) models of observed erupting active regions will be used as initial conditions to the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD code. The initial conditions on the active region and flux rope plasma will also be constrained by data using recently developed analysis techniques. These tools will be used to propagate more realistic CMEs to 1AU. The properties of the simulated CMEs (direction, velocity, acceleration, morphology, and shock-driving capability) will be compared with all available observations (coronal EUV and X-ray, white-light and in situ data).