Impact of climate warming on the stability of the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf and implications for the drainage of the vast Antarctic Ice Sheet

新的海洋模型数据表明，全球变暖的影响可能会导致南极洲韦德尔海温暖的深水航道在21世纪发生重大变化。这与位于威德尔海南部的第二大南极冰架--费尔奇纳-罗恩冰架(FRIS)下的冰架底部融化显著增加不谋而合。当冰架收缩时，减少的支撑可能会触发腹地冰盖排水的增加。南极西部和东部的大部分冰盖都流经南极冰原。因此，预计对海平面上升的可能影响将是巨大的。融化和冰架几何形状的调整再次对海洋循环产生影响。这强调了一个耦合的冰盖-冰架-海洋模型的必要性，以预测裂隙融化增加对海平面上升的总体贡献。我们建议通过三个步骤来量化这一贡献：首先，由海洋环流模式(OGCMS)获得的FRIS地区冰盖/陆架耦合模式将受到底部融化的强迫。其次，更改后的冰架几何图形会修改海洋模型的几何图形。最后，冰和海洋之间的反馈是迭代耦合的。作为最终结果，我们将通过FRIS量化南极冰盖的排水，从而量化其对未来几个世纪海平面上升的可能贡献。

New ocean-modelling data indicates that the impact of global warming might lead to a substantial regime shift of the Warm Deep Water path in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, during the 21stcentury. This coincides with a significant increase of ice-shelf basal melting underneath the second largest Antarctic ice shelf, the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), which is located in the southern Weddell Sea. When ice shelves shrink, the reduced buttressing presumably triggers an increased drainage of the ice sheet in the hinterland. Significant parts of the West- and East Antarctic Ice Sheet drain through the FRIS. Hence, the possible impact on sea-level rise is expected to be large. Melting and an adjusting ice-shelf geometry then again have an impact on the ocean circulation. This emphasises the necessity of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean model to project the overall contribution of increased FRIS-melting to sea-level rise. We propose to quantify this contribution in three steps: First, a coupled ice sheet/shelf model of the FRIS region will be forced with basal melting, attained from Ocean General Circulation Modells (OGCMs). Second, the altered ice shelf geometry modifies the ocean model's geometry. Finally, the feedbacks between ice and ocean are iteratively coupled. As a final result, we will quantify the drainage of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through FRIS and hence its likely contributionto sea-level rise for the next centuries.